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A Tale of Two Markets: Tech Breaks Down, Industrials Break Out

Defensive sectors lead while tech and crypto unwind sharply.

Author

Humbled Trader
February 08, 2026

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Markets followed through on last week’s “Moderately Bearish” forecast as risk-off sentiment accelerated, particularly in software stocks and crypto. While the S&P 500 and Nasdaq finished flat to lower, money rotated aggressively into perceived safety and value plays. Industrials, materials, energy, and consumer staples all hit fresh all-time highs, pushing the S&P Equal Weight Index (SPXEW) to a record.

The standout theme was capitulation-level selling in software and crypto. The tech-software ETF hit its most oversold reading since 2001 (RSI = 14), while Bitcoin plunged from ~$83K to $60K before rebounding toward $70K. At the same time, hyperscalers doubled down on AI, with Alphabet and Amazon announcing massive CapEx hikes, reinforcing confidence in the long-term AI infrastructure buildout. Earnings breadth remained strong, even as labor market data showed clear signs of deterioration.

‎TLDR Stock Market Weekly Update - Feb 8, 2026

📉 Market Trends

  • Rotation trade intact: Capital moved out of high-beta tech into industrials, materials, energy, and staples.

  • Earnings resilience: 79% of S&P 500 companies beat EPS expectations so far.

  • Risk-off under the surface: Software and crypto saw forced selling while defensives led.

📊 Technical Levels & Market Signals

  • • Dow Jones (DJI): Hit 50,000 for the first time, signaling strength in non-tech leadership.
    • S&P 500 (SPX): Bounced off the 100-day SMA, but remains rangebound between ~6,800–7,000.
    • Nasdaq / NDX: Broke below 100-day SMA, a bearish technical event—near-term outlook remains cautious unless reclaimed.
    • SPX Equal Weight: Fresh all-time highs confirm broadening beneath headline indices.
    • Market Breadth: Contracted sharply in Nasdaq due to software selloff.

💰 Economic Data, Rates & the Fed

  • Labor market weakening: ADP missed, job openings fell to 5-year lows, layoffs hit highest level since 2009, and jobless claims rose.

  • Manufacturing mixed: Chicago PMI back into expansion; national PMIs stable.

  • Treasury yields: Mostly flat week-over-week; 10-year briefly tested 4.30% before pulling back.

  • Fed expectations: Markets now assume no cuts before Powell exits, with June still the most likely window.

🏛️ Cryptocurrency News

  • Bitcoin experienced extreme volatility, falling nearly 50% from October highs before rebounding. Correlation with mega-cap tech increased, and forced deleveraging appears to be a major driver. While “Bitcoin winter” narratives are resurfacing, past drawdowns have typically required a clear fundamental catalyst, which remains debatable this cycle.

Sources: Charles Schwab

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📅 Coming up next week…

Economic Events:

  • Tue (2/10): Retail Sales, Factory Orders, Import/Export Prices

  • Wed (2/11): Nonfarm Payrolls, Unemployment Rate, Treasury Budget

  • Thu (2/12): PPI, Jobless Claims, Existing Home Sales

  • Fri (2/13): CPI

Notable Earnings Reports:

  • Mon (2/9): CLF, MNDY, OPEN, UPWK

  • Tue (2/10): KO, CVS, SPOT, DDOG, HOOD, LYFT, UPST, NET

  • Wed (2/11): SHOP, U, MCD, APP, ALB, QS

  • Thu (2/12): NBIS, COIN, PINS, ANET, DKNG, EXPE

  • Fri (2/13): MRNA

Sources: Earnings Whispers, Charles Schwab

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DVA $140.83

  • The stock broke out of a long-term downtrend and the 200-day SMA after a strong Q4 earnings beat and bullish guidance.

  • Leaning cautiously bullish on this name and looking to join the trend to the upside if it can hold the daily KL.

  • The key level to watch is the $139s. It looks like I would see a pullback to KL, then consolidation around it before the next leg up.

  • This is a technical swing trading idea.

  • Position Disclosure: No position

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STRL $401.29

  • The stock broke through a monthly downtrend near all-time highs.

  • I am looking to continue this daily wedge breakout setup, IF the stock holds the KL I am looking at.

  • The KL to watch is the previous $386 recent breakout area. If the breakout holds, I am looking for a retest of all-time highs.

  • Please note that the stock has earnings released scheduled for Feb 24, 2026.

  • However, if the stock breaks below the $380–$386 area on the daily chart, it’s no longer a viable option for my long thesis.

  • Position Disclosure: No position

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ENPH $49.80

  • This is a residential solar and battery company. The stock soared +30% after a Q4 earnings beat and upbeat guidance.

  • I like the technical breakout and reclaim over the daily 200 SMA.

  • I’m looking for a similar setup as the DVA idea earlier. Watching for a hold of the $48s daily support area to hold.

  • If it’s able to hold the KL and consolidate, the stock has potential upside to recent highs of $52s and potentially higher.

  • But if it breaks down $48, it’s no longer a valid long idea for swing.

  • Position Disclosure: No Position

🗞️ Market movers you might’ve missed:

- $AMZN - Amazon Slides On Surprise Surge In AI-Driven Spending Plans
- How we traded: Backside Long Strategy

- $AAPL - Amazon Slides On Surprise Surge In AI-Driven Spending Plans
- How we traded: Backside Long Strategy

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