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AI Frenzy or Dot-Com 2.0? Markets Reassess Tech Momentum- Weekend Watchlist

Humbled Trader's day trading & swing trading ideas

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Humbled Trader
September 28, 2025

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Last week’s “Slightly Bearish” forecast proved accurate as the S&P 500 hit a new all-time high early in the week but then pulled back, pressured by weakness in tech, AI, and momentum names.

Nvidia’s $100B OpenAI investment initially lifted sentiment but sparked worries about “circular financing,” echoing dot-com era risks. Oracle’s downgrade to Sell added to tech headwinds.

Despite equity weakness, U.S. economic data showed resilience—Q2 GDP was revised up to 3.8%, personal income/spending beat forecasts, and Q3 GDPNow was raised to 3.9%. Trump’s new tariffs on drugs, trucks, and furniture had little market impact.

‎TLDR Stock Market Weekly Update - September 26, 2025

📉 Market Trends

  • AI & Tech Selling: Nvidia-led AI enthusiasm turned to profit-taking on financing concerns.

  • Economic Strength: GDP, income, and spending data beat expectations, fueling yields higher.

  • Tariffs: New levies announced but largely shrugged off by markets.

📊 Technical Levels & Market Signals

  • S&P 500 (SPX): Pulled back from RSI extremes but bounced off its 20-day SMA—bullish support.

  • Russell 2000 (RUT): Trading below prior ATH (2,442) but holding 20-day SMA; yields remain key driver.

  • Breadth: Contracted as SPX, Nasdaq, and Russell all saw fewer stocks above 200-day SMAs.

💰 Economic Data, Rates & the Fed

  • Q2 GDP (3rd est): +3.8% vs. +3.3% est.

  • Personal Income/Spending: +0.4% / +0.6%, both above est.

  • PCE Prices: Headline +2.7% YoY; Core +2.9% YoY—highest in 17 months.

  • Durable Goods Orders: +2.9% vs. +0.5% est.

  • Jobless Claims: Fell to 218K, showing labor strength.

  • Fed Outlook: Rate cut odds for Oct slipped to 87% (from 91%); Dec cut odds fell to 71% (from 86%).

Sources: Charles Schwab

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📅 Coming up next week…

Economic Events:

  • Mon (9/29): Pending Home Sales

  • Tue (9/30): Chicago PMI, Consumer Confidence, FHFA & Case-Shiller Housing Price Indexes

  • Wed (10/1): ADP Employment, ISM Manufacturing, Construction Spending, MBA Mortgage Apps

  • Thu (10/2): Initial & Continuing Claims, Factory Orders, EIA Inventories

  • Fri (10/3): Nonfarm Payrolls, Unemployment Rate, Hourly Earnings, ISM Services

Notable Earnings Reports:

  • Mon (9/29): Carnival (CCL), Jefferies (JEF), Vail Resorts (MTN)

  • Tue (9/30): Nike (NKE), Paychex (PAYX), Lamb Weston (LW)

  • Wed (10/1): Levi’s (LEVI), Conagra (CAG), RPM (RPM)

  • Thu (10/2): AngioDynamics (ANGO), Trilogy Metals (TMQ)

  • Fri (10/3): No reports

Sources: Earnings Whispers, Charles Schwab

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BABA $171.91

  • The stock broke new 52-week highs after announcing its $53B AI investment and partnership with Nvidia.

  • Leaning cautiously bullish on this name and looking to join the trend to the upside if it can hold the KL.

  • The key level to watch is the $168s daily key level from last week. Ideally, we would see a pullback first to KL before making the next leg up to test the $180s and higher.

  • Position Disclosure: No position

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TSLA $440

  • The stock rallied back to the highs from the beginning of this year and has since then defended the breakout well.

  • Leaning cautiously bullish on this name and looking to join the trend if it can hold the $420s consolidation area on the daily.

  • If it does, the stock has potential upside to $440s and all-time highs.

  • However, if the stock breaks down the KL and cannot reclaim the trend, the long thesis is no longer valid.

  • Position Disclosure: No position

LAC $6.62

  • The stock soared to new 52-week highs following the news that the US government is potentially acquiring a 10% stake in the company.

  • This is quite a speculative play, therefore. I’m remaining neutral and watching how the stock reacts to KL, pending any news updates.

  • The KL to watch is the $6.6s level on the daily. If that level holds and consolidates, we could see another push and retest towards $7-$ 7.50.

  • This is a purely technical day trading idea.

  • Position Disclosure: No position

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BETR $53.02

  • This is the newest meme stock on the street, following the investor behind the OPEN rally calling it “the Shopify of mortgages”.

  • This stock has a thin float. Therefore, a surge of volume and shorts covering caused the stock to rally more than 100% last week.

  • This is a pure momentum play for short-term trading. The KL to watch is the $60s area on the daily.

  • If the stock is able to reclaim the KL early next week, we could see another push to test the $ 70-$80 range.

  • However, if the stock loses its volume and breaks below KL, or if the meme stock mania moves on to another new shiny object, we could see a slow fade down to $50s and below.

  • Position Disclosure: No Position

🗞️ Market movers you might’ve missed:

- Alibaba Group Holding Ltd ($BABA) Alibaba announces $53B data centre expansion and new AI partnerships.
- How we traded: Gap Up Reversal Long Strategy

- Intel Corp ($INTC) Intel Stock Rises As Trump Steps Up Efforts To Reshore Chip Manufacturing.
- How we traded: Backside Long Strategy

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The Watchlist Emails are NOT trade alerts to buy or sell. We are not financial advisers. The above information is for educational and entertainment purposes only. Investing of any kind involves risk. While it is possible to minimize risk, your investments are solely your responsibility. It is imperative that you conduct your own research. We are merely sharing our opinion with no guarantee of gains or losses on investments. You accept our Terms and Conditions.

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