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All-Time Highs Everywhere? S&P Pauses, BTC Breaks Out- Weekend Watchlist

Humbled Trader's day trading & swing trading ideas

Author

Humbled Trader
July 13, 2025

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Markets showed signs of consolidation, validating last week’s “Slightly Bearish” forecast. The S&P 500 slipped 0.20% despite briefly tagging a fresh all-time intraday high. Tariff extensions and escalations dominated headlines:
- The White House pushed the 90-day tariff pause deadline to August 1, but Trump warned it’s “firm, but not 100% firm.”
- New tariffs: 25% on Japan & South Korea starting Aug 1, and threats of up to 40% tariffs for 14 other countries.
- A 50% tariff on imported copper and a threat of 50% on Brazil also hit markets.

Surprisingly, equities held up relatively well, suggesting investors are either becoming desensitized or overly complacent about potential economic impacts.

‎TLDR Stock Market Weekly Update - July 11, 2025

📉Market Trends

  • Consolidation Mode: Early week gains faded as traders took risk off ahead of geopolitical headlines.

  • Tariff Noise: Ongoing trade uncertainty contributed to cautious price action.

📊 Technical Levels & Market Signals

  • S&P 500 (SPX): Closed at 6,260; RSI cooled slightly from 75 last week but remains elevated. Momentum divergence hints at caution.

  • Nasdaq 100 (NDX): Hit a fresh intraday high but with weakening RSI—suggesting momentum loss.

  • Market Breadth: Improved modestly—SPX 200-day SMA breadth rose to 64.6% from 62.7%.

💰Economic Data, Rates & the Fed

  • FOMC Minutes: No surprises; Fed remains cautious about rate cuts given tariff-driven inflation risks.

  • Initial Jobless Claims: Down 5K WoW to 227K (vs. 242K expected) – a sign of labor market resilience.

  • Atlanta Fed GDPNow: Unchanged at +2.6% for Q2.

  • Treasury Yields: Slightly higher—2-yr +2bps (3.90%), 10-yr +2bps (4.40%), 30-yr +7bps (4.93%).

  • Rate Cut Odds: Virtually unchanged; July cut probability near zero.

🏛️ Cryptocurrency News

  • Bitcoin rallied to a new all-time high (~$118,900) as Congress prepares to discuss several crypto bills during “Crypto Week.” The GENIUS Act, Anti-CBDC Surveillance State Act, and Digital Asset Market CLARITY Act could shape future regulations.

Sources: Charles Schwab

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📅 Coming up next week…

Economic Events:

  • Mon (7/14): No reports

  • Tue (7/15): CPI, Empire State Manufacturing

  • Wed (7/16): PPI, Capacity Utilization, Industrial Production, Crude Inventories, MBA Mortgage Applications

  • Thu (7/17): Retail Sales, Business Inventories, Initial & Continuing Claims, Import/Export Prices, NAHB Housing Index, TIC Flows, Philly Fed Index, Nat Gas Inventories

  • Fri (7/18): Building Permits, Housing Starts, Univ. of Michigan Consumer Sentiment

Notable Earnings Reports:

  • Mon (7/14): FAST, FBK, EQBK, BNED, SLP

  • Tue (7/15): JPM, WFC, BLK, C, BK, STT, JBHT, OMC, PNFP

  • Wed (7/16): JNJ, BAC, ASML, MS, GS, PGR, PLD, KMI, UAL, AA

  • Thu (7/17): TSM, GE, NVS, ABT, PEP, CTAS, ELV, USB, TRV, NFLX, IBKR, WAL, OZK

  • Fri (7/18): AXP, SCHW, MMM, TFC, SLB, RF, ALLY, CMA

Sources: Earnings Whispers, Charles Schwab

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DAL $56.65

  • The stock rose sharply last week after beating Q2 expectations.

  • Leaning bullish on this name and looking to join the trend to the upside on pullbacks only.

  • The key level to watch is the $54.8s level (also 200 SMA daily). If that level holds, we could see a steady consolidation to continue the uptrend.

  • This is purely a technical day trade and swing trade idea.

  • Position Disclosure: No position

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MARA $19.14

  • This stock has rallied over the last few days, along with cryptocurrency strength. BTC rose to new all-time highs this week, around $118,000.

  • Leaning cautiously bullish on this name and looking to ride the market momentum. If the rest of the sector names get a lift next week, this stock should continue its uptrend.

  • The key level to watch is the $18-18.5s area on the daily. As long as we can hold above KL, we could see more consolidation and breakout to the upside.

  • Position Disclosure: No position

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INKT $64.17

  • This low float stock surged 400% Friday after a publication highlighted promising Phase 2 gastric cancer data, sparking strong investor interest.

  • The stock likely trapped many shorts on Friday. It’s technically very extended, but at the same time, the high short interest and low float could propel the stock to spike again early next week.

  • I have no strong bias on this name. We’ll need to see how the stock reacts to the intraday $42-45s area early next week.

  • If the stock gaps down but still holds the KL, we could potentially see a secondary bounce and rally.

  • Position Disclosure: No Position

🗞️ Market movers you might’ve missed:

- Delta Air Lines, Inc. ($DAL) Delta jumped after strong Q2 earnings, a dividend hike, and reinstated full-year guidance.
- How we traded: Gap Up Reversal Long Strategy

- Advanced Micro Devices, Inc. ($AMD) AMD climbed after HSBC upgraded the stock to Buy, raised its price target, and highlighted strength in AI chip demand.
- How we traded: Backside Long Strategy

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