AMZN & MSFT's Blowout Earnings, Higher Rates, and Jobs Report Week

July went out with a bang. The S&P 500 closed the week at 7,489.72, up about 1%, and the Dow tacked on roughly the same to finish at 52,485.03, its fourth straight winning month. The Nasdaq led the weekly leaderboard at +1.6% (25,373.85), but don't let that fool you: the index still bled 3.2% across July as the AI trade whipsawed traders all month.

Earnings drove the tape. Amazon ripped 15.3% on blowout cloud growth, and the rest of the megacaps came along for the ride, with Alphabet +6.9%, Meta +3.3%, and Microsoft +3%. Apple went the other way, sliding 7.3% after chip shortages jacked up costs and dented June-quarter production. So the "market" looked calm on the surface while individual names moved 10-15% on prints. Classic earnings season.

The real story sits in the bond market. The 30-year yield spiked to 5.28%, its highest since 2007, and the 10-year pushed past 4.7% to levels we haven't seen since January 2025. The Fed held rates steady on Wednesday, but a divided committee plus hot yields flipped the script: traders now price a rate HIKE in September, not a cut. That tension heading into next week's jobs report is exactly what we're watching.

‎TLDR Stock Market Weekly Update - Aug 1, 2026

📉 Market Trends

• Small Caps Quietly Leading: The Russell 2000 stayed the healthiest chart in the group, holding above all its major moving averages while the megacap indices chopped. Breadth beats headlines here.

• Megacap Split Personality: Amazon, Alphabet, and Meta powered higher on earnings while Apple got taken to the woodshed. The AI winners keep winning, but the dispersion is widening.

• Bonds Steal the Show: A 30-year yield at 5.28% (highest since 2007) is the tell. Rising long-end rates are the biggest risk to this rally, and equities have shrugged it off so far.

• Hawkish Repricing: Markets flipped from expecting cuts to pricing a possible September hike. When the rate narrative reverses this fast, volatility usually follows.

📊 Technical Signals

• S&P Range Bound: The index is trading in a 7,425-7,550 box. Above 7,450 keeps the bulls in control; a clean break over 7,550 opens fresh highs. Support sits at 7,240-7,300 (the June lows).

• 200-Day as Anchor: Price is hugging the 200-day moving average near 7,479. This is the line in the sand. Hold it and the uptrend stays intact.

• IWM Looks Best: The Russell 2000 holds above all major MAs, with 651 as the key level to defend on any pullback. If small caps keep leading, the rally broadens.

• VIX Cooling: The VIX dropped below most of its major moving averages, a green light for lower overnight risk. It still sits above its 200-day, so keep one eye open.

💰 Economic Data, Rates & the Fed

• Fed Holds, Fed Splits: The FOMC left the target range at 3.50-3.75% on July 29, but the committee was visibly divided. Powell kept every option on the table.

• September Now Leans Hawkish: Markets price a 60-76% chance of a HIKE in September (not a cut), depending on the source. The July and August CPI reports will decide it.

• GDP Cools, Consumer Holds: Q2 GDP came in at a soft 1.5% annualized (advance estimate). June PCE rose 0.3% and personal income added 0.2%, so the consumer is spending but the economy is downshifting.

• Yields Break Out: The 10-year closed at 4.74%, the 2-year at 4.29%, and the 30-year at 5.28%. The long end is doing the talking, and it's pricing in sticky inflation and heavy supply.

Sources: Charles Schwab

‎

📅 Coming up next week…

Economic Events:

• Mon (8/3): ISM Manufacturing PMI (July), S&P Global Manufacturing PMI, Construction Spending (June)

• Tue (8/4): JOLTS Job Openings

• Wed (8/5): ISM Services PMI (July), S&P Global Services PMI

• Thu (8/6): Initial Jobless Claims, Continuing Claims

• Fri (8/7): July Jobs Report (nonfarm payrolls, unemployment rate). Consensus: +86K jobs, 4.2% unemployment, +0.3% wages

Notable Earnings Reports:

• Mon (8/3): PLTR, STRL, SNAP

• Tue (8/4): AMD, MCD, SMCI, W, SPCX

• Wed (8/5): SHOP, LLY, UBER, CRCL, DIS, SNDK, APP, WDC

• Thu (8/6): DKNG, QBTS, RGTI, ABNB, DDOG, AAOI

• Fri (8/7): TTWO, OKLO

Sources: Earnings Whispers, Charles Schwab

‎

‎ 

‎

Ready to Elevate Your Trading this year?
Check out the Humbled Trader community!

Trade alongside and engage in market discussions with like-minded traders, and learn from our team of experienced trading coaches.

Your success story could be featured in one of our next “Top Trades of the Week” showcases! Learn more about our community and what we offer by clicking the button below.