• Humbled Trader
  • Posts
  • Broadening Rally Meets Overbought Signals- Weekend Watchlist

Broadening Rally Meets Overbought Signals- Weekend Watchlist

Broad participation continues — but near-term caution is rising.

Author

Humbled Trader
January 25, 2026

‎

Markets remained range-bound at the index level, but rotation continued beneath the surface. While the S&P 500 and Nasdaq slipped slightly, small caps and equal-weight stocks outperformed, confirming the ongoing broadening trade. Weakness in mega-cap tech and software—driven by AI disruption fears—contrasted with renewed strength in semiconductors after solid earnings from Taiwan Semiconductor.

Macro data reinforced a firm but sticky economic backdrop: inflation cooled modestly, consumer spending stayed resilient, jobless claims remained low, and Q4 GDP expectations moved higher. In short, leadership rotated—but the bull trend didn’t break.

‎TLDR Stock Market Weekly Update - January 23, 2026

📊 Technical Levels & Market Signals

  • S&P 500 (SPX): Continues to outperform cap-weighted indices

  • Holding above recent breakout levels

  • Confirms ongoing broadening participation

💰 Economic Data, Rates & the Fed

  • CPI: Core inflation cooled slightly; headline steady

  • PPI: Annual readings still warm → inflation not accelerating, but sticky

  • Retail Sales: Beat expectations; consumer remains resilient

  • Jobless Claims: Near cycle lows

  • GDPNow (Q4): Revised higher to ~5.3%

  • Treasury yields drifted higher, flattening the curve modestly. As a result, rate-cut probabilities for 2026 continued to decline, with March and April odds easing further.

Sources: Charles Schwab

‎

📅 Coming up next week…

Economic Events:

  • Wed (Jan 28): Housing Starts, Building Permits, Pending Home Sales

  • Thu (Jan 29): GDP (Revised), PCE Inflation, Personal Income & Spending, Jobless Claims

  • Fri (Jan 30): University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment

Notable Earnings Reports:

  • Tue (Jan 27): UPS, BA, GM, RTX, AAL

  • Wed (Jan 28): ASML, SBUX, MSFT, META, TSLA

  • Thu (Jan 29): MA, AAPL, V

  • Fri (Jan 30): SOFI

Sources: Earnings Whispers, Charles Schwab

‎

‎

BABA $173.22

  • The stock got a boost after the company announced that they are planning an IPO for its chipmaking unit.

  • The stock also broke a multi-month downtrend on the daily. Leaning cautiously bullish on this name and looking to join the trend to the upside if it can hold the KL steadily and consolidate for another move higher.

  • The key level to watch is the $173.s daily key level. If the stock can hold said key level after pullback consolidation, we could see the next leg up to test the $180s and higher.

  • Position Disclosure: No position

‎ 

LMND $93.25

  • This is a multi-year breakout on this name. Last time it tested above $88s was in August 2021.

  • This is purely a technical trade idea. The KL to watch is the previous $88s key breakout level on the daily.

  • We may see a healthier pullback after a breakout like the one we're seeing now. If that level holds up and consolidates, we could see a reclaim of the uptrend and potential continuation to the upside.

  • However, if the stock continues to tank below KL, it’s no longer a valid long thesis.

  • Position Disclosure: No position

‎‎

CRML $20.62

  • This is a lithium mining stock that started breaking out of a long term down trend in the beginning of the year.

  • This stock has a history of running for multiple weeks after a high-volume breakout.

  • The KL I’m watching is the 16.8-18s area on the daily. I’m waiting for a pullback for entry to join the uptrend. If the breakout continues, the stock has potential upside towards $24 and higher.

  • This is purely a technical swing idea.

  • Position Disclosure: No Position

🗞️ Market movers you might’ve missed:

- $BABA: Alibaba's (BABA) AI Chip Unit Takes Aim at Nvidia (NVDA) as IPO Talk Gathers Pace.
- How we traded: Backside Long Strategy

- $ARM: Arm Holdings Stock Jumps As Analyst Flags Significant Upside
- How we traded: Backside Long Strategy

‎

Ready to Elevate Your Trading this year?
Check out the Humbled Trader community!

Trade alongside and engage in market discussions with like-minded traders, and learn from our team of experienced trading coaches.

Your success story could be featured in one of our next “Top Trades of the Week” showcases! Learn more about our community and what we offer by clicking the button below.

‎

Not sure how to select a tool that fit your needs? Reply to this email with your trading style, and we will be happy to help!

‎

Email Disclaimer:
The Watchlist Emails are NOT trade alerts to buy or sell. We are not financial advisers. The above information is for educational and entertainment purposes only. Investing of any kind involves risk. While it is possible to minimize risk, your investments are solely your responsibility. It is imperative that you conduct your own research. We are merely sharing our opinion with no guarantee of gains or losses on investments. You accept our Terms and Conditions.

‎

‎