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Earnings, Inflation & Jobs: Market Setup for September- Weekend Watchlist

Humbled Trader's day trading & swing trading ideas

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Humbled Trader
September 01, 2025

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Markets wavered but held near highs after a tech-led pullback late in the week offset earlier gains from upbeat economic data and cyclical sector leadership. The S&P 500 hit a new all-time intraday high of 6,508 on Thursday before closing lower Friday. The Russell 2000 extended its August rally to +7%, signaling small-cap strength.

Economic data was mixed: GDP was revised higher, Consumer Confidence surprised to the upside, and Jobless Claims were steady. But PCE inflation rose 0.3% m/m and 2.9% y/y, pressuring markets on Friday. Retail earnings were mixed—Walmart (WMT) fell on an EPS miss, while Lowe’s (LOW) rallied on strong results. The most anticipated event was Nvidia (NVDA) earnings: revenue surged 56% y/y to $54B, but growth slowed vs. last year, raising concerns about AI spending momentum. Subsequent reports from Dell (DELL) and Marvell (MRVL) reinforced those worries, dragging tech lower into week’s end.

‎TLDR Stock Market Weekly Update - Auguest 29, 2025

📉 Market Trends

  • Powell Momentum Fades: Jackson Hole optimism carried into early week, but PCE data revived inflation concerns.

  • Tech Pullback: NVDA solid but slower growth; DELL & MRVL misses raised AI-spending worries.

  • Breadth Holds: SPX breadth rose to 67% above 200-day MA; Russell extended rally → broadening participation.

  • Consumer Still Spending: Personal spending +0.5%, strongest in 4 months, but sentiment fell to 58.2.

📊 Technical Levels & Market Signals

  • S&P 500 (SPX): Closed -0.15% WTD; RSI at 58, ADX above 25 (trend intact). Above 20-day MA (6,420). Intermediate bullish, near-term sideways to bullish.

  • Equal Weight S&P (SPXEW): Broke out above December highs; ADX >25 confirms trend strength. Intermediate & near-term bullish.

  • Breadth: SPX ↑ to 67.1% (from 64.3%); Nasdaq ↑ to 51.4% (from 45.3%); Russell ↑ to 62.4% (from 53.8%). Broadening rally remains constructive.

💰 Economic Data, Rates & the Fed

  • GDP: Revised higher.

  • PCE Inflation: +0.3% m/m, +2.9% y/y; further from Fed’s 2% target.

  • Consumer Spending: +0.5% MoM, strongest in 4 months.

  • UMich Sentiment: 58.2 vs. 58.6 est.—confidence slipping.

  • Jobless Claims: In-line; labor market steady.

  • Fed Outlook: Higher PCE adds pressure, but market still expects September cuts after Powell’s comments last week.

🏛️ Cryptocurrency News

  • CFTC issued advisory clarifying how foreign crypto platforms can register to offer derivatives in the U.S., potentially opening the door for players like Binance to re-enter the U.S. market.

  • North America remains the largest crypto market (~$1.3T in on-chain value last year, ~22.5% of global activity).

  • Could raise competition vs. domestic leaders like Coinbase & Kraken.

Sources: Charles Schwab

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📅 Coming up next week…

Economic Events:

  • Mon (9/1): Labor Day (Markets Closed)

  • Tue (9/2): ISM Manufacturing, Prices Paid, New Orders, Employment

  • Wed (9/3): MBA Mortgage Apps, JOLTs Job Openings, Durable Goods, Factory Orders

  • Thu (9/4): Jobless Claims, ADP Employment, Challenger Job Cuts, ISM Services

  • Fri (9/5): Nonfarm Payrolls, Unemployment Rate, Labor Force Participation

Notable Earnings Reports:

  • Tue (9/2): NIO, SIG, ZS

  • Wed (9/3): DLTR, PSNY, M, CRM, FIG, ASAN, AEO

  • Thu (9/4): AVGO, CPRT, LULU, IOT, DOCU

  • Fri (9/5): ABM

Sources: Earnings Whispers, Charles Schwab

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BABA $135

  • The stock broke multi-month resistance after an impressive earnings and guidance beat, with AI improvements in the spotlight.

  • Leaning cautiously bullish on this name and looking to join the trend to the upside if it can hold the KL steadily and consolidate for another move higher.

  • The key level to watch is the $132 daily key level from Friday. Ideally, we would see a pullback first to KL before making the next leg up to test the $140s and higher.

  • Position Disclosure: No position

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SATS $61.87

  • The stock soared to new all-time highs after announcing a $23B deal with AT&T.

  • I’m looking to approach this as another trend join play, as this kind of catalyst could have more legs to the upside.

  • The KL to watch is the previous $59.6s breakout level on the daily. If that level holds up and consolidates, we could see another slow and steady trend up to the upside.

  • This is purely a technical day trade and swing trade idea.

  • Position Disclosure: No position

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SNOW $238.66

  • Another recent earnings and guidance beat gapper.

  • This is also a potential technical swing trade idea. The stock is starting its consolidation on the daily. The KL to watch for is the $237 area.

  • If it’s able to hold the KL and consolidate, we could see a slow and steady move higher to test $248 first and potentially higher.

  • Position Disclosure: No Position

🗞️ Market movers you might’ve missed:

- Alibaba Group ($BABA) Alibaba surged after reporting strong earnings and revealing their new AI chip, highlighting its push into AI infrastructure.
- How we traded: Gap Up Reversal Long Strategy

- Affirm Holdings ($AFRM) Affirm rallied after beating earnings and issuing upbeat guidance to new highs.
- How we traded: Backside Long Strategy

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