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Ether Treasury Strategy, DDOG S&P500 Inclusion - Weekend Watchlist

Humbled Trader's day trading & swing trading ideas

Author

Humbled Trader
July 06, 2025

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Markets extended their bullish run, with the S&P 500 rising 1.7% for the week and hitting fresh all-time highs. This aligned with last week’s “Slightly Bullish” forecast. Two key drivers fueled the rally:
1. A strong jobs report (Nonfarm Payrolls +147K vs. +106K expected) signaling labor market health.
2. A trade deal with Vietnam, which introduced a 20% U.S. tariff (higher than the prior 10% but lower than the previously threatened 46%), easing uncertainty.

However, markets remain cautious about the potential economic impact of higher tariff rates, which is still unclear.

‎TLDR Stock Market Weekly Update - July 3, 2025

📉Market Trends

  • Momentum remains strong as investors chase performance (FOMO) into new highs.

  • Seasonality: July tends to favor bulls, but near-term caution warranted due to overbought technicals.

📊 Technical Levels & Market Signals

  • S&P 500 (SPX): Closed at 6,274 with RSI at 75 (overbought). History suggests potential for a 2–10% pullback after such levels.

  • Russell 2000 (RUT): Cleared its 200-day SMA for three days straight, confirming a bullish breakout. RSI at 72 also signals caution.

  • Market Breadth: SPX breadth rose to 62.7% from 54.8% week-over-week; Nasdaq and Russell 2000 breadth also improved.

💰Economic Data, Rates & the Fed

  • Nonfarm Payrolls: +147K (vs. 106K expected)

  • Unemployment Rate: Dropped to 4.1% (vs. 4.3% expected)

  • Average Hourly Earnings: +0.2% MoM (in line), +3.7% YoY

  • Atlanta Fed GDPNow: Revised down to +2.5% from +2.9%

  • Treasury Yields: 2-yr +13bps to 3.87%, 10-yr +6bps to 4.34%, 30-yr +2bps to 4.85%

  • Rate Cut Odds: Dropped sharply – July FOMC cut probability now 5% (down from 25%)

🏛️  Cryptocurrency News

Texas created a Strategic Bitcoin Reserve, allocating $10M taxpayer funds. The state pledged not to sell holdings for budget needs, but skeptics note Bitcoin won’t yet be accepted for state payments.

Sources: Charles Schwab

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📅 Coming up next week…

Economic Events:

  • Tue (7/8): Consumer Credit

  • Wed (7/9): EIA Crude Oil Inventories, MBA Mortgage Applications, Wholesale Inventories

  • Thu (7/10): Initial & Continuing Jobless Claims, Natural Gas Inventories

  • Fri (7/11): Treasury Budget

Notable Earnings Reports:

  • Tue (7/8): IMMR, KRUS, AEHR, QMCO

  • Wed (7/9): AZZ, BSET

  • Thu (7/10): DAL, SMPL, LEVI, WDFC

Sources: Earnings Whispers, Charles Schwab

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DDOG $155.15

  • The stock broke through a multi-month resistance level last week after it was announced to join the S&P 500.

  • Leaning cautiously bullish on this name and looking to join the trend to the upside if it can hold the KL and consolidate for another move higher.

  • The key level to watch is the $153.5s area on the daily. If the stock holds and breaks through the KL, we could see a steady consolidation to test previous highs toward $159-166s.

  • This is purely a technical trade idea.

  • Position Disclosure: No position

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BMNR $135

  • This is the Ether treasury strategy firm helmed by Tom Lee. The stock had surged more than 3000% in less than a week after the firm announced the raising of $250M by selling shares to acquire ETH.

  • This parabolic breakout is somewhat similar to the rapid increase of SBET, another Ether treasury firm that made a similar announcement last month.

  • The stock is starting to become extended, purely on a technical basis. However, we could still see another gap up and squeeze early next Monday or Tuesday before the actual first red day prevails.

  • The first red day short is what I am patiently waiting and looking for. The current level I am watching is the $100-120 intraday area. However, the stock could easily gap up another 10% next Monday or Tuesday.

  • As long as the stock holds green and above the opening price, it’s not a valid short confirmation. This short idea is not for most new traders.

  • This is purely a technical day trade idea.

  • Position Disclosure: No position

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🗞️ Market movers you might’ve missed:

- Apple Inc. ($AAPL) Apple shares are trading higher after Jefferies upgraded the stock from Underperform to Hold and raised the price target from $170.62 to $188.32
- How we traded: Backside Long Strategy

- Datadog, Inc. ($DDOG) Datadog surged after news that it will join the S&P 500 on July 9.
- How we traded: Gap Up Reversal Long Strategy

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