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Hertz Short Squeeze & Momentum Stocks - Weekend Watchlist

Humbled Trader's day trading & swing trading ideas

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Humbled Trader
April 20, 2025

Markets experienced relatively muted volatility this week, with the S&P 500 trading within a 200+ point range (~5,220–5,459) and ending down approximately 0.5%.

Despite a 90-day pause on tariffs announced last week, investors remain cautious as no official trade deals have been finalized. President Trump indicated "big progress" in negotiations with Japan and ongoing discussions with Italy, but the absence of concrete agreements continues to weigh on market sentiment. The longer it takes to secure trade deals, the greater the potential negative impact on the economy and stock market.

On a positive note, Q1 earnings have been relatively healthy, with 58 of 500 S&P companies reporting an average revenue growth of 6.17% and EPS growth of 6.35%. Additionally, the labor market appears stable, and a pullback in Treasury yields, likely influenced by encouraging comments from Boston Fed President Susan Collins, provided some support to the markets.

‎TLDR Stock Market Weekly Update - April 17, 2025

📉Market Trends

  • Volatility: Markets remain volatile amid ongoing trade negotiations and global economic uncertainties.

  • Earnings: Q1 earnings reports have been relatively healthy, contributing to market resilience.

  • Valuations: Stocks are fully valued at a forward P/E of approximately 20, suggesting limited upside without positive catalysts.​

📊 Technical Levels & Market Signals

  • S&P 500: Traded within a range of ~5,220–5,459 this week, indicating a consolidation phase.

  • Resistance Levels: Key resistance at 5,550 for the S&P 500 and 19,000 for the Nasdaq 100.

  • Market Breadth: Improved slightly but remains depressed, with a low percentage of stocks trading above their 200-day moving averages.​

💰 Inflation & Consumer Confidence

  • Retail Sales: Headline month-over-month increased 1.4%, the most since January 2023, suggesting strong consumer spending.

  • Consumer Sentiment: University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index fell to 50.8, the lowest since June 2022, reflecting growing consumer concerns.​

🏛️ Federal Reserve & Interest Rates

  • Fed's Stance: Boston Fed President Susan Collins stated that the Federal Reserve is prepared to act if market conditions become disorderly, though specific criteria remain undefined.

  • Interest Rates: Despite softer inflation data, Treasury yields rose, with the 10-year yield increasing over 50 basis points, signaling market apprehension.

Sources: Charles Schwab

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📅 Coming up next week…

Notable Earnings Reports:

  • Monday, April 21: WAL, ZION

  • Tuesday, April 22: GE, RTX, VZ, LMT, MMM, SAP, TSLA

  • Wednesday, April 23: T, BA, CME, IBM, NOW, CMG, TXN

  • Thursday, April 24: PG, AA, NOK, MRK, NDAQ, INTC, GOOGL, TMUS, SKX, GILD

  • Friday, April 25: ABBV, CL, SLB, CNC, PSX, CHTR

Sources: Earnings Whispers, Charles Schwab

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DLTR $79.14

  • The stock was covered as a similar idea to $DG over the last couple of weeks. Since then, it has broken out of consolidation and is now testing the 200SMA breakout.

  • The key level to watch is the $ 78 daily level. If it can hold the 200SMA and consolidate more above this recent breakout, we could see a slow and steady curl to test daily gap levels around $85 and $ 90s.

  • However, if the stock breaks down the $78s KL and is unable to reclaim strength, its no longer a valid long idea.

  • This is purely a technical day trade and swing trade idea.

  • Position Disclosure: No position

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HTZ $8.24

  • The stock surged more than 50% after Bill Ackman (Pershing Square) revealed a $46M stake.

  • With the stock’s high short float and extreme volume the last two days, it is likely that we should see some more follow through.

  • Staying cautiously bullish on the stock IF it can hold that $7-$7.3 breakout level from Friday. If you zoom out on the daily, you’ll see that it was a significant key level from March 2024.

  • Looking for more uptrend consolidation around the said KL, if that holds we could see a slow and steady climb to test $9-$10s.

  • Position Disclosure: No position

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MSGM $2.75

  • This is a very small market cap name that spiked after regaining Nasdaq compliance and receiving a $2.5M investment.

  • This is a long-term downtrending stock that has some heavy resistance at around the $2.8-$3 key level if the stock rejects.

  • Leaning cautiously bearish on the stock, if the stock rejects the KL, it could be a potential short back down to the low $2s.

  • However, if it reclaims over $ 3, the short thesis is no longer valid.

  • Position Disclosure: No Position

🗞️ Market movers you might’ve missed:

- Hertz Global Holdings Inc ($HTZ) Hertz Shares Jump 56% as Billionaire Investor Bill Ackman Discloses Stake.
- How we traded: Trend Join Long Strategy

- Roblox Corp. ($RBLX) Morgan Stanley Maintains Overweight on Roblox, Lowers Price Target to $70
- How we traded: Backside Long Strategy

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