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Market All-Time Highs, Tariff Updates & More- Weekend Watchlist

Humbled Trader's day trading & swing trading ideas

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Humbled Trader
June 29, 2025

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Hi traders! I’ll be attending and speaking at the Blossom Investor Tour just like the last two years in Vancouver, Toronto and Montreal (US cities and dates to be announced soon!)

Tickets are on sale now. They always sell out every year! So if you’re interested in attending, grab your tickets ASAP!

Blossom is a social investing app that allows you to connect with other investors, see their trades, and track your own investment portfolio. You can see my entire long term investment portfolio on Blossom as well.

For more detailed breakdown, check out my profile on Blossom @humbledtrader.

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Markets rallied this week, with the S&P 500 climbing over 3% to reach fresh all-time highs, defying last week's "Slightly Bearish" forecast.

The boost came after a ceasefire agreement between Israel and Iran followed U.S. strikes, and optimism around the U.S.–U.K. trade framework. However, late-week headlines from President Trump—announcing a suspension of Canada trade talks and uncertainty around extending the July tariff pause—weighed on sentiment, triggering intraday profit-taking.

‎TLDR Stock Market Weekly Update - June 27, 2025

📉Market Trends

  • All-time highs: S&P 500 reached ~6,187 intraday before a pullback.

  • Trade headlines: Suspension of Canada discussions and unclear extension on tariff pause spurred caution

📊 Technical Levels & Market Signals

  • Small-cap caution: Russell 2000 slid below its 200-day SMA, signaling technical vulnerability.

  • S&P momentum: While record highs are positive, overbought levels (RSI ~70) suggest some near-term digestion.

💰 Inflation & Consumer Confidence

  • Mixed signals: Core PCE inflation came in hotter than expected, while personal income and spending were weak—leading to a lowered Atlanta Fed GDP nowcast of 2.9%.

  • Labor relief: Initial jobless claims dropped below 240K, easing recent labor market concerns.

🏛️ Federal Reserve & Interest Rates

  • Yield dynamics: 2-year yields fell ~16 bps (3.74%), 10-year yields fell ~11 bps (4.26%), 30-year yields eased ~8 bps (4.81%).

  • Rate-cut bets: Fed cut expectations for July edged up to 20%, with total expected cuts in 2025 rising to 2.55.

Sources: Charles Schwab

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📅 Coming up next week…

Economic Events:

  • Mon, Jun 30: Chicago PMI

  • Tue, Jul 1: Construction Spending, ISM Manufacturing

  • Wed, Jul 2: ADP Employment, Crude Inventories, MBA Mortgage Apps

  • Thu, Jul 3: Nonfarm Payrolls, Unemployment Rate, Wage Data, Trade Balance

  • Fri, Jul 4: Market Holiday (no reports)

Notable Earnings Reports:

  • Mon, Jun 30: PRGS,

  • Tue, Jul 1: STZ

  • Wed, Jul 2: UNF, ZENV

Sources: Earnings Whispers, Charles Schwab

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COIN $353.43

  • The stock got a lift with crypto rally. This is one of the many tech stocks breaking through new all time highs recently.

  • Leaning bullish on this name and looking to join the trend to the upside on pullbacks only.

  • The key level to watch is the previous all time highs level of $335s. If that level holds, we could see a steady consolidation to continue the uptrend.

  • This is purely a technical day trade and swing trade idea.

  • Position Disclosure: No position

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SMCI $47.58

  • The stock just broke out of a long term downtrend on the daily chart after a few weeks of consolidation above the 200SMA.

  • Leaning bullish on this name and looking to ride the market momentum. If the rest of the sector names get a lift next week, this stock should continue its momentum.

  • The key level to watch is the $45.5-46s area. As long as we can hold above this area, we could see more consolidation and breakout to the upside.

  • Position Disclosure: We are in a swing long position from $42.90.

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PLTR $130.74

  • I’m not sure what exactly caused the major pull back on Friday. Some headlines refer it to a profit-taking event from retail, while others claim that it was due to a large index rebalancing on Friday.

  • Technically speaking, the stock has potential downside to the $126.6s area on the daily chart.

  • If the stock does reach the key area mentioned above, I would be interested in looking at a potential dip buy to join the trend.

  • However, if the stock is unable to hold that said KL, it has more downside back to $120-121s.

  • Position Disclosure: No Position

🗞️ Market movers you might’ve missed:

- Circle Internet Group, Inc. ($CRCL) CRCL plunged over 20% after a nearly 700% post-IPO rally.
- How we traded: Extension Daily Short Strategy

- Advanced Micro Devices, Inc. ($AMD) AMD unveiled its new “Helios” AI server powered by its MI400-series chips, marking a strategic push deeper into AI infrastructure and bolstering its long-term positioning
- How we traded: Trend Join Long Strategy

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