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Markets Pause After Rotation Rally - Weekend Watchlist

Tech cools, breadth softens, and traders eye a holiday-shortened week ahead

Author

Humbled Trader
December 21, 2025

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Markets struggled to extend last week’s bullish breakouts, with major indices finishing flat to slightly lower. Early-week selling in tech—driven by lingering concerns around AI infrastructure spending—dragged on sentiment, though stocks stabilized in the back half of the week.

A strong “beat and raise” quarter from Micron and cooler year-over-year CPI helped spark a late rebound, but skepticism around economic data (amid the government shutdown) and a contrarian sell signal from Bank of America suggested bullish sentiment may be stretched near term.

‎TLDR Stock Market Weekly Update - December 19, 2025

📉Market Trends

  • Tech Volatility: AI-related names weighed on indices early in the week before stabilizing.

  • Rotation Unclear: Strength in equal-weight indices recovered late week, but small caps lagged.

  • Sentiment Watch: BofA’s Bull & Bear Indicator flashed a contrarian sell signal, historically linked to weaker 3-month returns.

💰 Economic Data, Rates & the Fed

  • Inflation: CPI came in cooler than expected on a YoY basis, supporting risk assets—though data reliability was questioned due to shutdown disruptions.

  • Jobs: Mixed signals from payrolls and unemployment; labor market appears softer but not collapsing.

  • Rates: Treasury yields fell modestly on the week despite global bond market pressure (notably from Japan), easing some equity headwinds.

  • Fed Expectations: Rate-cut outlook for 2026 largely unchanged despite softer data.

Sources: Charles Schwab

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📅 Coming up next week…

Economic Events:

  • Mon (Dec 22): No major reports

  • Tue (Dec 23): Durable Goods Orders, Q3 GDP (Advanced), Industrial Production, New Home Sales

  • Wed (Dec 24): Initial Jobless Claims, Continuing Claims, MBA Mortgage Applications, EIA Crude Oil & Natural Gas Inventories

  • Thu (Dec 25): U.S. Markets Closed – Christmas Day

  • Fri (Dec 26): No major reports

Notable Earnings Reports:

  • Mon (Dec 22): DRUG, EBF

  • Tue (Dec 23): BLIN, LMNR

  • Fri (Dec 26): CTXR, OTLK

Sources: Earnings Whispers, Charles Schwab

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RKLB $70.52

  • The company was awarded a $816M contract by the US Space Development Agency. The news sent the stock to all-time highs after hours.

  • I am cautiously bullish on this name. The KL for the stock to test early next week is the ATH area of $72.

  • IF the stock can break out and consolidate above said KL, I would look for trend join long opportunities to the upside.

  • This is simply a technical day-trading and swing-trading idea.

  • Position Disclosure: No position

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TSLA $481.20

  • Similar to the RKLB idea earlier, the TSLA chart is testing the all-time high area of $481s. However, the recent breakout has not been convincing (largely due to AI-related market weakness).

  • I am patiently waiting for an aggressive gap-up and a breakout after this daily consolidation because TSLA tends to run for multiple days once it starts trending.

  • However, if the stock continues to reject the ATH KL, or if the market experiences a large pullback during the shortened week, this long idea is no longer valid.

  • Position Disclosure: No position

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🗞️ Market movers you might’ve missed:

- CoreWeave Inc. ($CRWV) CoreWeave Joins Department of Energy's Genesis Mission to Advance U.S. Research and Innovation.
- How we traded: Backside Long Strategy

- Micron Technology Inc. ($MU) Micron shatters Q1 expectations and delivers record-breaking outlook bolstered by HBM dominance.
- How we traded: Backside Long Strategy

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