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Middle East Tension, Energy & AI Gappers- Weekend Watchlist

Humbled Trader's day trading & swing trading ideas

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Humbled Trader
June 15, 2025

Markets ended the week relatively flat as geopolitical tensions flared in the Middle East. The S&P 500 finished unchanged after a 0.75% drop on Friday, reacting to Israel’s "preemptive strike" on Iran. Trade optimism rose earlier in the week when U.S. and China agreed to a rare-earth metals trade framework in London, but China’s six-month export license cap tempered enthusiasm. Cooler-than-expected CPI and PPI inflation data helped ease Treasury yields and boosted rate-cut hopes, while softer small business and consumer sentiment data showed mild improvement.

‎TLDR Stock Market Weekly Update - June 13, 2025

📉Market Trends

  • Flat Performance: S&P 500 unchanged on the week amid geopolitical and trade headlines.

  • Oil & Risk Appetite: Oil prices spiked ~7%, yet equities did not sharply decline.

  • Treasury Yields: Fallen after cooler inflation prints, increasing expectations for Fed easing.

📊 Technical Levels & Market Signals

  • Uptrend Intact: Despite recent pressure, intermediate uptrend in S&P 500 remains intact.

  • Momentum Weakness: Recent price action shows signs of short-term weakening.

💰 Inflation & Consumer Confidence

  • Inflation Reports: CPI rose 0.1% MoM (in line), Core CPI up 0.1% MoM (below expectations). PPI was flat MoM.

  • Small Business & Sentiment: NFIB small business index improved; consumer sentiment rose to 60.5 from 52.2

🏛️ Federal Reserve & Interest Rates

  • Rate-Cut Odds: Cooler inflation increased the likelihood of rate cuts, though all data remains above Fed’s 2% target.

Sources: Charles Schwab

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📅 Coming up next week…

Economic Events:

  • Mon, Jun 16: Empire State Manufacturing Index

  • Tue, Jun 17: Retail Sales, Business Inventories, Industrial Production, Import/Export Prices, NAHB Housing Index

  • Wed, Jun 18: FOMC Rate Decision, Building Permits, Housing Starts, Crude Inventories, MBA Applications, Long-Term TIC Flows

  • Thu, Jun 19: Continuing Claims, Gas Inventories, Initial Claims

  • Fri, Jun 20: Leading Indicators, Philadelphia Fed Index

Notable Earnings Reports:

  • Mon, June 16: APPS, LEN, PETS

  • Tue, June 17: JBL, LZB

  • Wed June 18: ACB

  • Thu, June 19: No notable reports

  • Fri, June 20: KR, ACN, KMX

Sources: Earnings Whispers, Charles Schwab

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ORCL $195.36

  • Stock surged last week after ER beat and reporting massive cloud growth. The stock is breaking out through new all time highs.

  • Though it may look extended, I’m personally looking for any meaningful pull back or even gap down with the market for long entries.

  • Looking for trend join long setups on this name as long as it can hold and stay above the $195s daily KL.

  • Position Disclosure: No position

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MU $115.60

  • The stock broke through a multi-month resistance last week, after the company and the Trump Administration announced expanded investments in leading-edge DRAM manufacturing and R&D.

  • Leaning cautiously bullish on this name and looking to join the trend to the upside on pullbacks towards the 8EMA only.

  • The key level to watch is the $113 area on the daily. If that level holds, we could see a steady consolidation to test previous highs.

  • This is purely a technical day trade and swing trade idea.

  • Position Disclosure: No position

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OKLO $63.66

  • The stock broke through all-time highs again after the company was selected to supply clean power for an Air Force base in Alaska.

  • I’m leaning neutral on this name. The stock seems to be a bit extended, however, if it consolidates around KL, it could continue to trend.

  • The KL to watch is the previous breakout level of $57s. If the market gaps down next week, or if the stock retraces the extension, we could see it test KL again.

  • Position Disclosure: No Position

🗞️ Market movers you might’ve missed:

- Exxon Mobil Corp. ($XOM) Oil surges on geopolitical tension in Middle East.
- How we traded: Backside Long Strategy

- Oracle Corp ($ORCL) Earnings Play, AI revenue forecast.
- How we traded: Gap Up Reversal Long Strategy

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