🚨 Nasdaq Breakdown Confirmed — More Pain Ahead?- Weekend Watchlist

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Markets experienced another volatile week, but performance diverged sharply beneath the surface. While the S&P 500 Equal Weight index (SPXEW) notched a fresh all-time high midweek, the major cap-weighted indices finished lower as AI disruption fears intensified across multiple industries — not just software.

Concerns spread beyond tech into real estate, logistics/trucking, wealth management, and other legacy industries as AI headlines fueled a “sell first, ask questions later” reaction. Investors are now grappling with a paradox: AI infrastructure spending has powered earnings growth and new highs, yet AI adoption may threaten traditional business models.

Despite the negative sentiment shift, macro data painted a more constructive picture:

• January Nonfarm Payrolls came in strong.

• CPI was cooler than expected.

• Treasury yields fell sharply across the curve (10-year down to ~4.05%).

• Q4 earnings remain solid, with ~66% of companies beating revenue and ~76% beating EPS.

Still, falling yields failed to provide their usual lift to equities — a notable caution signal.

‎TLDR Stock Market Weekly Update - Feb 14, 2026

📊 Technical Levels & Market Signals

• Nasdaq 100 (NDX): 

  • Confirmed a bearish pullback at the 100-day SMA.

  • Prior support now acting as resistance.

  • Failure to reclaim ~25,200 would reinforce near-term bearish momentum.

  • Technical Translation: Near-term bearish.

• S&P 500 (SPX):

  • Rangebound between 6,800–7,000.

  • Currently bouncing near 6,800 support and 100-day SMA.

  • Multiple support tests increase risk of eventual breakdown.

  • Technical Translation: Slightly bullish short-term if 6,800 holds; vulnerable if breached.

• Market Breadth:

  Despite index weakness, breadth held up surprisingly well:

  • SPX breadth improved to ~66%.

  • Nasdaq breadth ticked slightly higher.

  • Russell breadth eased modestly.

  This suggests selling pressure was concentrated rather than broad-based.

💰 Economic Data, Rates & the Fed

• This week’s data was mixed but leaned constructive overall.

  • Jobs: Nonfarm Payrolls beat expectations (+130K vs. +65K), unemployment dipped to 4.3%, and wage growth came in firm at +0.4% MoM.

  • Inflation: CPI was cooler than expected (+0.2% MoM headline), with core CPI at 2.5% YoY — the lowest since 2021.

  • Retail Sales: Flat month-over-month, showing some consumer cooling after prior strength.

• Treasury yields fell sharply across the curve (10-year down ~14 bps to ~4.05%), which would typically support equities — but stocks struggled to rally, a divergence worth watching.

• Rate cut expectations eased slightly after the strong jobs report, with March cut odds now near 10%.

🏛️ Cryptocurrency Update

• Bitcoin initially sold off following the strong payrolls report as rate cut expectations were repriced. However, the softer CPI report triggered a rebound.

• Technically:

  • Bitcoin found support near its 200-week moving average.

  • 100-week MA (~$87K) may act as resistance.

  • Volatility has cooled compared to prior weeks.

  • The broader crypto narrative remains tied to macro liquidity conditions and tech sentiment.

Sources: Charles Schwab

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📅 Coming up next week…

Economic Events:

• Mon (2/16): No reports

• Tue (2/17): Empire State Manufacturing

• Wed (2/18): Building Permits, Housing Starts, Industrial Production, Capacity Utilization

• Thu (2/19): Initial Claims, Continuing Claims, Philadelphia Fed, Pending Home Sales

• Fri (2/20): Q4 GDP (Advanced), PCE Prices, Personal Income & Spending, University of Michigan Sentiment

Notable Earnings Reports:

• Tue (2/17): PANW, ETOR, MKSI

• Wed (2/18): BKNG, CVNA, FIG, DASH, EBAY, FVRR

• Thu (2/19): WMT, W, OPEN, AXTI

• Fri (2/20): AU

Sources: Earnings Whispers, Charles Schwab

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