New Records, Big Tech Earnings & The Fed

Two stories drove the week: peace talks between the US and Iran extending the ceasefire, and a blowout earnings print from Intel (INTC) that reignited the AI/chip trade. Intel posted $13.6B in Q1 revenue versus $12.36B expected, with AI-driven businesses now 60% of revenue and growing 40% YoY. Shares spiked nearly 30% intraday and helped power semiconductors to an 18-day winning streak. The Nasdaq's 13-day win streak (longest since 1992) snapped Monday on Iran tension, but bulls quickly reclaimed control.

Volatility cooled with the VIX closing at 19.31, reflecting easing geopolitical fear but still elevated enough to signal traders aren't fully relaxed. Treasury yields ticked up: the 10-year ended the week at 4.31% (up about 7bps) and the 2-year at 3.78%, as the Strait of Hormuz situation kept oil-driven inflation worries in play heading into next week's FOMC meeting.

The S&P 500 closed at 7,165.08 on Friday, up 0.80% on the day and printing a fresh all-time high, while the Nasdaq jumped 1.63% to 24,836.60 for its own record close. The Dow lagged at 49,230.71, down 0.16% on Friday but holding near recent highs, and the Russell 2000 finished at 2,787.00 after one of its best weekly stretches since the November 2024 election. Weekly gains were modest compared to the prior three weeks, but the breakout to new highs is technically bullish.

‎TLDR Stock Market Weekly Update - April 24, 2025

📉Market Trends

• Records Broken: S&P 500 and Nasdaq printed fresh all-time highs Friday, with Nasdaq up 1.63% on the day. The Dow was the lone holdout, ending the week without joining the record party.

• Chips Carry the Tape: Semiconductors logged an 18-day winning streak, with Intel's blowout report (revenue $13.6B vs $12.36B expected) lifting the entire AI infrastructure trade and the Nasdaq by as much as 1.5% on Friday.

• Iran Peace Trade: Renewed US-Iran ceasefire optimism removed a key tail risk, fueling the late-week rally even as Strait of Hormuz tensions kept oil and yields supported.

• Mean Reversion Risk: After three strong weeks and fresh highs, the setup is technically bullish intermediate-term but stretched short-term. Some consolidation is overdue.

📊 Technical Levels & Market Signals

• SPY at New Highs: SPY closed at $714.05, marking a fresh 52-week high. With no overhead supply, the next zone to watch is psychological resistance, while initial support sits near the prior breakout shelf around $702 to $705.

• QQQ Strong: Tech-heavy QQQ remains the leader in chip momentum. Key support sits in the $609–$627 zone from accumulated volume, with $584 as a deeper backstop if the rally stalls.

🏛️ Economic Data, Rates & the Fed

• FOMC On Deck: The two-day meeting starts Tuesday with the rate decision and Powell presser on Wednesday at 2:00 PM ET. CME FedWatch shows ~83% odds of no change, with rates parked at 3.50–3.75%.

• March Inflation Reminder: March CPI rose 0.9% MoM (3.3% YoY) and PPI advanced 0.5% MoM (4.0% YoY). Energy did most of the damage, with gasoline up 21.2%. Sticky enough to keep cuts on hold.

• Yields Drift Higher: 10-year ended the week at 4.31% (+7bps) and 2-year at 3.78%, with the curve at +53bps. Oil pressure from the Strait of Hormuz is doing the work that the Fed isn't.

• Cuts Pushed Out: Markets now price in just one more 25bp cut for all of 2026, most likely September or October. A growing minority bets on no cuts at all.

Sources: Charles Schwab

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📅 Coming up next week…

Notable Earnings Reports:

• Mon (4/27): VZ, DPS, NUE

• Tue (4/28): UPS, KO, SPOT, GM, HOOD, BE, STX, V

• Wed (4/29): MSFT, META, GOOGL, AMZN, QCOM

• Thu (4/30): AAPL, LLY, MA, FSLR, WDC, W, RDDT

• Fri (5/1): XOM, CVX

Sources: Earnings Whispers, Charles Schwab

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