• Humbled Trader
  • Posts
  • 🚨 Overbought Markets, Fed Cuts, and What’s Next for Tech- Weekend Watchlist

🚨 Overbought Markets, Fed Cuts, and What’s Next for Tech- Weekend Watchlist

Fed cuts rates, tech wobbles, and Q3 earnings impress — here’s what could move markets next week.

Author

Humbled Trader
November 02, 2025

🚀 Featured Tool: 25% OFF on Trade Ideas Scanner

My trusted scanner, Trade Ideas, is having a big sale for ALL plans (monthly & annual). Spoilers: I find most of my weekend watchlist ideas from this scan!

Here’s how I use the scanner (you can download my settings below)

  • Day trading scans:

    I scan for intraday runners, stocks that halt up and down, and stocks that move with explosive volume breakouts.

  • Swing trading scans:

    I scan for big gappers, multi-day breakouts and trending stocks.

  • You can download my Trade Ideas scanner settings here.

  • Use code: HUMBLED25 to get 25% off all plans

‎

Markets kicked off the week at record highs, boosted by a 25 bps Fed rate cut, strong mega-cap tech earnings, and optimism following the Trump–Xi summit. Early gains faded midweek as Fed Chair Powell signaled that future cuts are data-dependent, cooling investor enthusiasm.

Tech earnings were mixed — Microsoft (MSFT) and Alphabet (GOOGL) posted solid results, but Meta (META) fell over 12% after issuing heavy CapEx guidance, and Amazon (AMZN) slipped on weaker cloud margins. Meanwhile, the semiconductor index (SOX) rallied early but reversed as traders took profits.

Despite the volatility, the S&P 500 still posted a modest weekly gain of +0.4%, the Dow +0.6%, while the Nasdaq slipped -0.2% as traders rotated into defensives and cyclicals.

Earnings season remains strong: 317 S&P 500 firms have reported, with 67% beating revenue and 82% beating EPS, translating to +10.3% earnings growth YoY.

‎TLDR Stock Market Weekly Update - October 31, 2025

📉 Market Trends

  • Fed Cut: Powell cut rates by 25 bps but maintained a cautious tone on further easing.

  • Trade Diplomacy: Trump–Xi meeting brought incremental progress on tariffs and AI cooperation, but few specifics.

  • Sector Rotation: Money flowed out of high-momentum AI and into Energy, Financials, and Industrials.

  • Winners: Energy (+3.2%), Financials (+2.1%), Industrials (+1.8%)

  • Laggers: Tech (-0.9%), Communication Services (-1.4%), Consumer Discretionary (-0.6%)

đź“Š Technical Levels & Market Signals

  • S&P 500 (SPX): The S&P 500 held above its 20-day SMA for the 12th consecutive week, confirming strong trend momentum. However, RSI remains elevated near 71, suggesting overbought conditions.

  • Nasdaq Composite (COMP -62 to 18,933):
    The Nasdaq printed a bearish engulfing candle midweek but bounced off the 50-day SMA, showing strong dip-buying demand.

  • SOX (Semiconductor Index -0.8%): RSI cooled from 83 to 73, but overall trend remains intact.

đź’° Economic Data, Rates & the Fed

  • FOMC Decision: 25 bps cut, bringing the Fed Funds range to 4.75–5.00%.

  • Powell Remarks: “We are not on a pre-set course” — signaling cuts are not guaranteed in December.

  • GDP (Advanced Q3): +3.1% annualized vs. +2.8% expected.

  • Core PCE: +0.2% MoM, in line with forecasts.

  • Initial Jobless Claims: 219K vs. 220K expected.

Sources: Charles Schwab

‎

đź“… Coming up next week…

Economic Events:

  • Mon (11/3): Factory Orders, Durable Goods

  • Tue (11/4): ISM Services, Job Openings (JOLTs)

  • Wed (11/5): ADP Employment, Crude Inventories

  • Thu (11/6): Jobless Claims, Trade Balance

  • Fri (11/7): Nonfarm Payrolls, Unemployment Rate

Notable Earnings Reports:

  • Mon (11/3): FUBO, PLTR, HIMS

  • Tue (11/4): UBER, SHOP, SPOT, AMD, SMCI, BYND, PINS

  • Wed (11/5): MCD, U, HOOD, IONQ, APP, BROS, QCOM, ARM, SNAP

  • Thu (11/6): QBTS, WBD, MRNA, OPEN, TTD, DKNG, ABNB

  • Fri (11/7): XOM, BRK.A

Sources: Earnings Whispers, Charles Schwab

‎

‎

QCOM $180.9

  • The stock had an intraday 15% rally earlier last week, after unveiling AI solutions to rival NVDA and AMD.

  • Even though it sold off most of the gains already, I think with enough daily consolidation, we coulds till see another steady leg up.

  • The key level to watch is the $181s daily key level. I’m watching for a reclaim and hold of KL to join trend for a potential move higher.

  • Please note its Q3 earnings call is scheduled on Wed (Nov 5) after close.

  • Position Disclosure: No position

‎ 

TER $181.76

  • The stock rallied to new all-time highs after an impressive Q3 earnings beat.

  • Leaning cautiously bullish on this name and looking to join the trend if it can pull back and hold the $168 consolidation area on the daily.

  • However, if the stock breaks down the KL and cannot reclaim the trend, the long thesis is no longer valid.

  • This is a potential swing trading idea.

  • Position Disclosure: No position

W $103.51

  • This is a multi-year breakout for W. The last time it broke above $100 was in April 2022. The gap up last week was due to impressive Q3 results.

  • The KL to watch is the $100-101s level on the daily. If that level holds and consolidates, we could have a next leg up to test higher levels from 2022 ($120, $130s, etc).

  • However, if the stock fails below $100 and cannot reclaim, it’s no longer a valid long trade.

  • This is a purely technical swing trading idea.

  • Position Disclosure: I have a swing position open with an average of $ 104.30.

‎‎

NOK $6.91

  • This is definitely the most speculative idea out of all the stocks on watch this week. The explosive move earlier last week was really reminiscent of the 2021 meme stock era.

  • The stock traded sharply higher after Nvidia announced it would take a $1 billion strategic partnership

  • This is a pure momentum play for short-term trading. The KL to watch is the $7s area on the daily.

  • If the stock is able to reclaim the KL early next week, we could see another push to test the $8s highs.

  • However, if the stock loses its volume and breaks below KL, we could see a gradual decline to $6 and below.

  • Position Disclosure: No Position

🗞️ Market movers you might’ve missed:

- Wayfair Inc ($W) Wayfair Stock Jumps After Strong Earnings Beat as Revenue and Margins Top Expectations
- How we traded: Trend Join Long Strategy

- NVIDIA Corp ($NVDA) Nvidia Shares in Focus as AI Demand Surges and Regulatory Headwinds Test Market Momentum
- How we traded: Backside Long Strategy

‎

Ready to Elevate Your Trading this year?
Check out the Humbled Trader community!

Trade alongside and engage in market discussions with like-minded traders, and learn from our team of experienced trading coaches.

Your success story could be featured in one of our next “Top Trades of the Week” showcases! Learn more about our community and what we offer by clicking the button below.

Email Disclaimer:
The Watchlist Emails are NOT trade alerts to buy or sell. We are not financial advisers. The above information is for educational and entertainment purposes only. Investing of any kind involves risk. While it is possible to minimize risk, your investments are solely your responsibility. It is imperative that you conduct your own research. We are merely sharing our opinion with no guarantee of gains or losses on investments. You accept our Terms and Conditions.

‎

‎