Peace Deal, Hawkish Fed, Record Dow

Peace broke out and so did the buying. The U.S.-Iran deal to end hostilities and reopen the Strait of Hormuz crushed oil and sent stocks ripping Monday (S&P +1.5%, Nasdaq +2.4%). Then Wednesday's twist: the Fed held at 3.50% to 3.75%, but the new dot plot flipped hawkish, with nearly half of officials now penciling in a rate HIKE this year. That was Kevin Warsh's first meeting in the chair, and the message landed as higher-for-longer. Yields jumped (2-year 4.19%, 10-year 4.49%).

Small caps shrugged it off and led. The Russell 2000 hit a new intraday high, the Nasdaq finished the week up ~2.4% on chip strength, the S&P held near 7,500 (+0.9%), and the Dow printed a fresh record near 51,500 (+0.7%). Markets closed Friday for Juneteenth. The kicker: through a hawkish Fed and a Middle East deal, the VIX stayed asleep in the mid-16s.

‎TLDR Stock Market Weekly Update - June 21, 2026

📉 Market Trends

• Geopolitics Flipped the Switch: The U.S.-Iran deal and reopened Strait of Hormuz crushed the oil-spike fear trade overnight. Risk appetite snapped right back.

• Small Caps Took the Lead: The Russell 2000 outran the mega-caps all week and hit a new intraday high. When small caps and the equal-weight crowd lead, breadth is healthy.

• Hawkish Fed, Calm Tape: A dot plot pointing to rate hikes usually rattles cages. This time stocks shook it off and the VIX barely flinched. That resilience is worth watching.

• Chips Carried Tech: Semis did the rebound work after the Fed sell-off, dragging the Nasdaq to the front of the pack. Software was quieter.

📊 Technical Signals

• SPY Near Highs: With the S&P around 7,500, SPY is sitting just under record territory (~760 area as a ceiling). First support sits near the 732 level that held earlier in June.

• QQQ Holding Up: Watch the ~705 accumulation zone as support, with overhead supply building closer to ~740. Semis are the tell here.

• IWM Breaking Out: The Russell printed a new intraday high this week, so IWM has cleared its prior range. That's the bullish breadth signal. The question is whether it holds with yields elevated.

• Volatility Asleep: VIX in the mid-16s after a hawkish Fed and a geopolitical deal. Complacency or genuine calm? Either way, the premium is cheap if you want protection.

💰 Economic Data, Rates & the Fed

• Fed Holds, Dots Flip: Rates stayed at 3.50% to 3.75% in a unanimous 12-0 vote, but the new dot plot showed 9 officials expecting at least one HIKE this year and 6 seeing two. Higher-for-longer just got more literal.

• Warsh Era Begins: This was Kevin Warsh's first meeting as Fed Chair. The hawkish lean sets the tone for how he wants the market to read him.

• Yields Pushed Up: The 2-year jumped to 4.19% and the 10-year to 4.49% as traders priced the hawkish path. The curve stayed positive.

• Inflation Watch On Deck: With the dots leaning hawkish, next week's May PCE print (the Fed's favorite inflation gauge) becomes the number that matters most.

Sources: Charles Schwab

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📅 Coming up next week…

Economic Events:

• Tue (6/23): Consumer Confidence (Conference Board)

• Wed (6/24): New Home Sales, FHFA House Price Index, Chicago Fed National Activity Index

• Thu (6/25): Initial Jobless Claims, Durable Goods Orders, Final Q1 GDP, Advance Goods Trade Balance

• Fri (6/26): May PCE & Core PCE, Personal Income & Spending, Final UMich Sentiment

Notable Earnings Reports:

• Mon (6/22): 

• Tue (6/23): CCL, FDX, CBRS

• Wed (6/24): MU, PAYX

• Thu (6/25): BB, WGO, NNOX

• Fri (6/26): APOG

Sources: Earnings Whispers, Charles Schwab

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