• Humbled Trader
  • Posts
  • S&P 500 Hits Highs, But Divergences Are Growing- Weekend Watchlist

S&P 500 Hits Highs, But Divergences Are Growing- Weekend Watchlist

Humbled Trader's day trading & swing trading ideas

Author

Humbled Trader
August 17, 2025

‎

My travel trading set up

🚀 Featured Broker: Centerpoint Securities

For years, I’ve trusted Centerpoint Securities as my trading broker. They’re built for serious traders who need speed, reliability, and professional-grade tools.

Here’s why I trade with them:

  • Fast executions & real-time data

  • Advanced charting & direct market access

  • 3 Months DAS Trader Pro platform ($360 value)

  • FREE Commissions for 90 days

  • FREE Access to up to $7500 of trading tools: Benzinga, Trade Ideas, Dilution Tracker & more.

👉 New: Exclusive Transfer Promo
If you’ve been dropped by Schwab or are losing access to E*TRADE Pro, Centerpoint is offering a private transfer incentive for traders who transfer in an account.

Don’t let your broker decide your future — switch to a brokerage made for active tradesr!

Markets shook off hotter-than-expected producer inflation and still closed higher, with the S&P 500 tracking a +1% weekly gain. July CPI was in line (0.2% m/m), but Core CPI rose 0.3%, its hottest since January. PPI, however, spiked (0.9% m/m vs. 0.2% expected), sparking an initial selloff that dip buyers quickly reversed. Retail Sales (0.5% vs. 0.6% est.) showed steady consumer demand, while sentiment surveys revealed inflation concerns.
Q2 earnings wrapped up strong: 69% beat on revenue, 81% on EPS, led by tech and especially Communications (44% EPS growth thanks to META & GOOGL). Tariff headlines also resurfaced, with Trump floating 200–300% levies on semiconductors and more hikes on steel, reinforcing the onshoring theme.

‎TLDR Stock Market Weekly Update - August 15, 2025

📉 Market Trends

  • Inflation Mixed: CPI steady, but Core readings hotter. PPI spooked markets short-term.

  • Resilient Dip Buying: Markets rallied back quickly, keeping the SPX positive.

  • Earnings Strength: Broad beats; Communication Services leading Q2 with +44% EPS growth.

  • Tariff Talk: Trump floated steep semiconductor and additional steel tariffs, with exemptions for U.S. production.

📊 Technical Levels & Market Signals

  • S&P 500 (SPX): +1% on the week, near-term and intermediate-term bullish. 20-day MA (~6,367) remains strong support.

  • Equal Weight S&P (SPXEW): Still below December highs—needs broader participation. Watching 50-day MA at 7,399 as key support.

  • Breadth: 61% of SPX above 50-day MA, 60% above 200-day MA. Narrow leadership—Mag7 driving gains.

  • Translation: Trend bullish, but divergences forming. Still a stock picker’s market.

💰 Economic Data, Rates & the Fed

  • CPI: +0.2% m/m inline; Core CPI +0.3% m/m (highest since Jan).

  • PPI: +0.9% m/m vs. +0.2% est.—hottest since March.

  • Jobless Claims: Initial 224K, Continuing 1.953M (stable labor market).

  • Retail Sales: +0.5% vs. +0.6% est.—consumer steady.

  • UMich Sentiment: 58.6 vs. 62 est.; 1-yr inflation expectations jumped to 4.9%.

  • Rates: Treasury yields ticked higher after PPI; Fed cut odds for September remain elevated.

🏛️ Cryptocurrency News

  • Fed will wind down the Biden-era “novel activities” supervision program, signaling less scrutiny on banks working with digital assets.

  • Ether-led July rally pushed crypto market cap to $3.7T (+14% MoM) per JPMorgan.

Sources: Charles Schwab

‎

📅 Coming up next week…

Economic Events:

  • Mon (8/18): NAHB Housing Market Index

  • Tue (8/19): Housing Starts, Building Permits

  • Wed (8/20): Fed Minutes, MBA Mortgage Applications

  • Thu (8/21): Jobless Claims, Philly Fed, S&P Global PMIs, Leading Index, Existing Home Sales

  • Fri (8/22): None

Notable Earnings Reports:

  • Mon (8/18): BTDR, PANW

  • Tue (8/19): HD, VIK, XPEV

  • Wed (8/20): TJX, LOW, TGT, BIDU

  • Thu (8/21): WMT, INTC, WDAY, ZM

  • Fri (8/22): BABA, BJ

Sources: Earnings Whispers, Charles Schwab

‎

‎

WULF $8.97

  • The stock is testing previous all-time high levels after two brand new long-term deals valued at over $3B.

  • Leaning cautiously bullish on this name, and looking to join the trend to the upside if it can break above ATHs and hold the breakout.

  • ATH $9 area is the KL to watch. Once again, only a break out and consolidation above the level would be a trend joining signal for me.

  • This is purely a technical swing trade and day trade idea.

  • Position Disclosure: No position

‎ 

UNH $304.01

  • This depressed stock finally gapped up after Berkshire Hathaway’s 13F filing revealed a $1.6B position.

  • The KL to watch is the previous support around the $297-298s area. If this recent gap-up holds, I will look for an entry to join the trend to the upside.

  • The stock has upside to gap fill back to $330s, $350s, and potentially above. However, my thesis would be invalidated if the stock breaks down and trades below KL.

  • This is purely a technical day trade and swing trade idea.

  • Position Disclosure: I have a swing position with a $254 average.

‎‎

AAPL $231.59

  • The stock made a nice recovery recently, after trading in a long-term downtrend since the tech sell-off in February and March of this year.

  • It has now reclaimed the 200SMA on the daily after reporting earnings, and Bloomberg is reporting that the company is expanding into AI robotics, smart displays, and home security.

  • This is a potential technical swing trade idea as well for me. The KL to watch for is the $228 area on the daily. If it’s able to hold the KL and consolidate, we could see a slow and steady move higher to test $240s first and potentially higher.

  • Position Disclosure: No Position

🗞️ Market movers you might’ve missed:

- UnitedHealth Group ($UNH) UnitedHealth rallied after Berkshire Hathaway disclosed a new $1.6 billion stake in the company.
- How we traded: Gap Up Reversal Long Strategy

- Apple Inc. ($AAPL) Bloomberg announced the company is expanding into AI robotics, home security, and smart displays.
- How we traded: Gap Up Reversal Long StrategyBackside Long Strategy

‎

Ready to Elevate Your Trading this year?
Check out the Humbled Trader community!

Trade alongside and engage in market discussions with like-minded traders, and learn from our team of experienced trading coaches.

Your success story could be featured in one of our next “Top Trades of the Week” showcases! Learn more about our community and what we offer by clicking the button below.

Email Disclaimer:
The Watchlist Emails are NOT trade alerts to buy or sell. We are not financial advisers. The above information is for educational and entertainment purposes only. Investing of any kind involves risk. While it is possible to minimize risk, your investments are solely your responsibility. It is imperative that you conduct your own research. We are merely sharing our opinion with no guarantee of gains or losses on investments. You accept our Terms and Conditions.

‎

‎