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S&P 500 Hits New Records: Bulls Ignore Shutdown, Tech Looks Tired- Weekend Watchlist

Humbled Trader's day trading & swing trading ideas

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Humbled Trader
October 05, 2025

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Markets surged to fresh all-time highs this week, with the S&P 500 up nearly 2%, defying the ongoing U.S. government shutdown. The rally was powered by seasonal tailwinds, strong fund inflows, falling Treasury yields, and optimism ahead of Q3 earnings season. The AI infrastructure theme stayed front-and-center, though some late-week weakness hit big tech and semiconductors as traders locked in profits.

Economic data was limited due to the shutdown, but the ADP report showed the largest job decline since 2023. Still, traders saw soft labor data as a green light for more Fed rate cuts. Overall — a bullish week, capped by dip-buying and momentum from cyclical sectors.

‎TLDR Stock Market Weekly Update - Oct 3, 2025

📉 Market Trends

  • Macro Tailwinds:

    • Seasonality flipped positive entering Q4, and investors expect a soft landing + rate cuts by year-end.

    • Treasury yields eased across the curve; 10-year yield fell to 4.10%.

    • GDP revised to 3.8% for Q2, confirming resilient U.S. growth.

    Sector Rotation:

    • AI & Tech led early, but profit-taking hit mega-caps late week.

    • Cyclicals and Industrials gained traction, hinting at broadening participation.

    • Energy pulled back, down ~2%, on OPEC+ production headlines.

📊 Technical Levels & Market Signals

  • S&P 500 (SPX): Bounced once again off the 20-day SMA and closed at a new record near 6,750. The trend remains intermediate-term bullish, though the RSI at 72 signals near-term overbought conditions — historically a prelude to brief consolidation.

  • Semiconductors (SOX): Up ~5% this week, hitting new highs — but RSI reached 83, the most overbought since 2011. Traders eyeing potential short-term pullback before resumption of uptrend.

🏛️ Economic Data, Rates & the Fed

  • ADP Employment: -32K vs +54K expected — largest drop since 2023.

  • ISM Manufacturing: 49.1 (7th straight contraction month).

  • ISM Services: Fell to 50.0 from 52.0.

  • Consumer Confidence: 94.2 vs 97.0 est — lowest since April.

  • Yields: 10-year at 4.10%, 2-year at 3.56%.

  • Rate Cut Odds: 97% chance of an October cut, 86% for December.

Markets continue to bet on two more rate cuts in 2025, supported by softer labor data and easing inflation expectations.

Sources: Charles Schwab

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📅 Coming up next week…

Economic Events:

  • Tue (10/7): Trade Balance, Consumer Credit

  • Wed (10/8): EIA Crude Inventories, MBA Mortgage Apps

  • Thu (10/9): Jobless Claims, Wholesale Inventories

  • Fri (10/10): Michigan Consumer Sentiment

Notable Earnings Reports:

  • Mon (10/6): STZ, AEHR

  • Thu (10/9): DAL, PEP, LEVI, TLRY

Sources: Earnings Whispers, Charles Schwab

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CRWV $134.79

  • The stock initially gapped up on Tuesday following positive news of a $14 billion deal with Meta.

  • Despite the lack of continued momentum, the stock had held the $135s KL area on the daily relatively well.

  • I’m leaning bullish on this name. Watching for a daily consolidation around said KL and a potential breakout to test 146 and higher.

  • This is a potential technical day trade and swing trade idea.

  • Position Disclosure: I have a swing position from $120s.

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PFE $27.37

  • The stock soared last week after striking a landmark agreement on drug pricing with the Trump Administration.

  • I’m leaning neutral on this name. The move could already be priced in. However, if the stock can reclaim and continue to trend above the daily KL of $27.2s, we could see more upside towards $128-129s.

  • Position Disclosure: No position

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RGTI $40.06

  • This is one of the many quantum sector breakouts this week. Other names include QUBT, IONQ, OKLO.

  • I’m leaning neutral on this name. I’m only looking for pullbacks to trend to go long. Quantum names have been difficult to trade as breakouts.

  • The KL to watch is the $34-35s area. I prefer to patiently wait for a potential entry with a market pullback. Looking to buy the dip if the trend holds up above KL.

  • Position Disclosure: No Position

🗞️ Market movers you might’ve missed:

- Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co Ltd ($TSMC) TSMC stock target raised at Morgan Stanley on expected earnings beat
- How we traded: Gap Up Reversal Long Strategy

- CoreWeave Inc ($CRWV) CoreWeave Stock Soars on $14 Billion Meta Deal -- Wall Street Says the Nvidia-Backed AI Stock Is Still a Buy.
- How we traded: Backside Long Strategy

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