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Singapore Trading Conference, Market Plunge & more - Weekend Watchlist

Humbled Trader's day trading & swing trading ideas

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Humbled Trader
April 06, 2025

Meet Me in SINGAPORE!

Hi traders!

I’m excited to share that I will be attending the Market Insights Conference in Singapore, hosted by MarketWise ASIA on Saturday, April 26, 2025.

I will be giving a presentation live at the event: Trade Less, Profit More: The Art of Swing Trading

This event is FREE to attend. There will be no recording playbacks online. If you are in the area, make sure to RSVP asap.

Hope to see some of you soon in Singapore!

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Last week’s sentiment called for volatility with a slightly bearish tone—but markets delivered a full-blown selloff. Tariff announcements from the Trump administration were harsher and broader than expected, sparking a sharp market decline of 8–10% and sending the VIX soaring to 40. While there’s speculation that negotiations could soften the blow, President Trump remains firm, though he signaled openness to talks if a “phenomenal” deal is presented.

A 75-day extension on TikTok’s U.S. sale deadline also hints at flexibility. Meanwhile, strong March job numbers were largely ignored, viewed as outdated in light of the sudden trade shock.

Fed Chair Powell acknowledged the risk of inflation and slowing growth due to tariffs but held off on suggesting rate cuts without further data. Uncertainty remains high heading into next week.

‎TLDR Stock Market Weekly Update - April 4 2025

📉 Market Trends

  • Significant Decline: Major indices are on pace for sharp weekly losses, with the S&P 500 down approximately 8–10%, driven by unexpected tariff announcements. ​

🌐 Trade Concerns

  • Tariff Announcements: The U.S. administration revealed higher and broader tariffs than anticipated, leading to market volatility. While negotiations are speculated, President Trump remains firm, and some countries have responded with or threatened countermeasures. ​

🏛️ Federal Reserve & Economic Indicators

  • Fed's Position: Chairman Powell acknowledged potential inflationary effects from tariffs but indicated no immediate rate cuts unless warranted by hard data. ​

  • Economic Data: March Nonfarm Payrolls exceeded expectations, suggesting a robust labor market. However, other indicators like the ISM Manufacturing Index and JOLTS report presented mixed signals about economic health.

Sources: Charles Schwab

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📅 Coming up next week…
Economic Events:

  • Monday, April 7: Consumer Credit​

  • Wednesday, April 9: EIA Crude Oil Inventories, MBA Mortgage Applications Index, Wholesale Inventories​

  • Thursday, April 10: Initial & Continuing Jobless Claims, Consumer Price Index (CPI), Treasury Budget​

  • Friday, April 11: Producer Price Index (PPI), University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment (Preliminary)

Notable Earnings Reports:

  • Mon, April 7: LEVI, GBX, PLAY

  • Tue, April 8: TLRY, RPM

  • Wed, April 9: DAL, STX

  • Thu, April 10: KMX, LOVE

  • Fri, April 11: JPM, WFC, BLK

Sources: Earnings Whispers, Charles Schwab

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KR $67.18

  • Consumer defensive name that had been holding up relatively strong compared to the rest of the market.

  • It’s been holding up a steady uptrend since its Q1 earnings report early March. Friday was the first day of a major pull back with the rest of the market.

  • Looking for a potential further pullback next week to test the $64-$66 daily key support range.

  • If that area holds up, we could see steady consolidation and reclaim over 8EMA to continue its uptrend.

  • Similar to our idea on $DG two weeks ago, this is a potential day swing idea if the thesis plays out.

  • Position Disclosure: No position

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MLGO $18.56

  • This was a massive short squeeze stock last week. After a harsh 200SMA rejection, it seems to be losing a lot of momentum and starting to form a backside on the daily.

  • Looking for the stock to continue rejecting that $20 KL, which is holding up as a multi-day resistance. If the stock rejects and sells off below 8EMA, it would be a valid short idea to the downside towards $15 and $10s.

  • However, if that $20-$21 area is reclaimed, this short thesis is no longer valid.

  • Position Disclosure: No position

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NMAX $45.00

  • This is a highly volatile IPO name. The stock surged over 2000% on the first two days of trading after going public. The euphoria is followed by an +80% plunge in the few days after.

  • Many are citing this to be another massive short squeezed hype event similar to many WSB stocks back in 2021.

  • With a very limited trading history, the only clear floor on this stock is the $40-$41 range on the daily. If that last support is broken down next week, we could see even more fade on this stock, especially given the current market enviornment.

  • Position Disclosure: No Position

🗞️ Market movers you might’ve missed:

- Apple Inc. ($AAPL) Stock falls as tariffs threaten to hit hardware the hardest.
- How we traded: Backside Short Strategy

- Dollar General Corp ($DG) Walmart, Costco, Dollar General: Early favorites to withstand the tariff hit as grocery wins over discretionary.
- How we traded: Backside Long Strategy

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Check out this amazing trade made by our wonderful HT community member: Joe!

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