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SOX Up 64%, All Eyes on NVDA in 11 Days - Weekend Watchlist

Semis are running, RSI is hot, and the print everyone's waiting for is May 20.

Author

Humbled Trader
May 10, 2026

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Hey traders!

I’m excited to announce that I will be coming to Vancouver, Toronto, and New York City for BlossomCon!

BlossomCon brings together retail investors from across North America for a full day of investor education, networking, and market discussions. There’ll be live sessions with top finance creators and industry voices, plus interactive activations, swag, food, and drinks throughout the day.

I’ve been speaking at Blossom events every year since 2023, and honestly, meeting you guys IRL is always one of the highlights of my summer every. single. year!

I’m looking forward to seeing familiar faces and meeting new ones this August/October 😃!

In addition to the regular speaking panels, I’ll be hosting a Trading Masterclass at the Toronto event on August 8 for VIP ticket holders. 

Space is limited, so grab your tickets if you’re interested. Early bird tickets are on sale now!

Records fell again this week as the bulls refused to take a breather. The S&P 500 closed Friday at 7,398.93, gaining roughly 2.3% on the week, while the Nasdaq Composite ripped 4.5% higher to finish at 26,247.08. The Dow lagged but still squeezed out a 0.2% gain, settling at 49,609.16. Both the S&P and Nasdaq notched their sixth straight weekly win, the longest streak since 2024.

The fuel was a hotter-than-expected April jobs report. The U.S. economy added 115,000 jobs, above the 65,000 consensus estimate, and unemployment held steady at 4.3%. Tech earnings continued to do the heavy lifting, with semis leading the charge as the SOX rallied another leg into record territory. Small caps quietly perked up too, with IWM trading around $284, just a few cents off its 52-week high of $287.58.

It wasn't all smooth though. Mid-week, a fresh military exchange between the U.S. and Iran briefly rattled risk assets before peace talks cooled the headlines. And Friday delivered a very public reminder that earnings season is a minefield: The Trade Desk cratered 11.7% after a soft print. The VIX drifted back to 16.55, signaling traders are leaning bullish heading into a CPI-heavy week and the lead-up to Nvidia's May 20 earnings.

‎TLDR Stock Market Weekly Update - May 10, 2026

📉 Market Trends

  • Tech Back in the Driver's Seat: The Nasdaq's 4.5% weekly gain crushed the Dow's 0.2%, with semis and AI infrastructure names doing the bulk of the work. Software remains a more selective trade.

  • Six-Week Win Streak: Both the S&P 500 and Nasdaq finished higher for the sixth straight week, the longest run since 2024. Momentum is strong, but stretched.

  • Earnings Sorting Winners From Losers: Strong tech beats lifted indices, but Trade Desk's 11.7% Friday drop showed that any guide-down is getting punished hard at these multiples.

  • Geopolitics Still in the Mix: A mid-week U.S./Iran flare-up was quickly walked back, and oil cooled off. Markets shrugged it off, but the headline risk isn't going away.

  • Jobs Reinforce the Soft-Landing Trade: 115K April jobs and a steady 4.3% unemployment rate keep the soft-landing narrative alive, which is exactly what equity bulls want to see

📊 Technical Levels & Market Signals

  • SPX in Price Discovery: With the S&P 500 at 7,398, there's no overhead resistance. First key support sits at the prior breakout zone around 7,300, then 7,200.

  • QQQ Overbought: QQQ closed near $711 with an RSI of 76, deep in overbought territory. Watch $691 as first support and $665 as a major line in the sand.

  • SOX on Fire: The semiconductor index is now up roughly 64% from the March 30 lows. Recent 2.7% pullbacks have been bought aggressively, but this is one to respect heading into NVDA on May 20.

💰 Economic Data, Rates & the Fed

  • Jobs Came In Hot: April nonfarm payrolls rose 115K vs. 65K expected, with unemployment steady at 4.3%. A clear "no recession in sight" print.

  • Fed on Hold, For Now: CME FedWatch is pricing roughly a 70% probability the Fed holds at the June meeting and only a 28% chance of a 25 bp cut. The market sees the next cut closer to September.

  • Yields Drift Higher: The 10-year finished the week at 4.38%, while the 2-year sits at 3.90%. The curve is still positively sloped as inflation risk creeps back in.

  • Powell's Final Week: Jerome Powell's term as Fed chair ends Friday, May 15. Kevin Warsh has been nominated to succeed him, with a Senate vote likely next week.

Sources: Charles Schwab

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📅 Coming up next week…

Economic Events:

  • Tue (5/12): April CPI & Core CPI

  • Wed (5/13): April PPI & Core PPI, MBA Mortgage Applications, Fed speakers (Waller, Bowman)

  • Thu (5/14): Initial Jobless Claims, Continuing Claims, Trump and Xi meeting in China, Fed speaker (Cook)

  • Fri (5/15): Empire State Manufacturing, Industrial Production, University of Michigan Sentiment (prelim), Powell's term as Fed Chair ends

Notable Earnings Reports:

  • Mon (5/11): CRCL, HIMS, CEG, SPG, RGTI

  • Tue (5/12): OKLO, QBTS, ONON, JD

  • Wed (5/13): NBIS, BABA, WIX, FLNT

  • Thu (5/14): FIG, YETI, KLAR, ONDS, AMAT, NU

  • Fri (5/15): ALK

Sources: Earnings Whispers, Charles Schwab

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DDOG $200.16

  • This name surged 40% overnight after an impressive earnings beat and higher guidance.

  • Technically speaking, the stock is testing all-time highs again, for the third time since 2021.

  • Leaning bullish on this name and looking to join the trend to the upside if it breaks and holds the previous ATHs of $200s.

  • Over that KL, this would be a textbook trend join long for me as a potential day trade and swing trade. This will be my top watch early next week.

  • Position Disclosure: No position

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RKLB $105.47

  • Unlike the previous chart, this stock has confirmed a break of previous all-time highs with similar catalysts.

  • The stock price is through three digits for the first time after a strong ER beat, upside guidance, and landing a record $30M launch deal.

  • This stock is also, of course, part of the space theme that's getting hyped in the market, along with a near-term SpaceX IPO.

  • I took a position on Friday. I’m looking for a similar play to the previous idea. The KL to watch is the $100s intraday breakout level from Friday.

  • Position Disclosure: I have a swing position at $102s.

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TSLA $428.35

  • TSLA has been late to participate in any market rally over the last six weeks or so.

  • With a positive China sales jump, Musk back in the spotlight, and the near-term SpaceX IPO, TSLA could have a stronger leg up after this technical downtrend break.

  • The stock is finally back above the 200SMA on the daily chart and is now testing key resistance around $420.

  • I’m leaning cautiously bullish and watching to see if the stock pulls back, consolidates KL, and provides an entry.

  • Position Disclosure: No Position

RXT $5.49

  • This is a smaller-cap cloud infrastructure company. They recently announced earnings, but more importantly, they’ve signed a multi-year partnership with AMD.

  • The stock price rallied 56% on Friday, and is now testing multi-year highs.

  • This action is reminiscent of the previous $SOUN and $NOK moves. Even though the catalyst is different, the chart reaction is very similar.

  • The key level is $5.9 from Friday’s highs. I’m simply waiting for a confirmed day two high of the day breakout to join the move.

  • Position Disclosure: No Position

🗞️ Market movers you might’ve missed:

- $RXT Rackspace Technology shares are trading higher after the company reported better-than-expected Q1 sales results.
- How we traded: Backside Long Strategy

- $RKLB Rocket Lab shares are trading higher after the company reported better-than-expected Q1 sales results and issued Q2 sales guidance above estimates. The company announced it will acquire Motiv Space Systems and was awarded a $30 million contract by Anduril Industries for multiple hypersonic test flights.
- How we traded: Backside Long Strategy

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