SPY Rips, VIX Back Under 20, Earnings Kick Off Next Week

Well, that escalated quickly (in a good way). After three ugly weeks of war-driven selling, stocks ripped higher on news of a two-week U.S. & Iran ceasefire, handing us the best week since November. The S&P 500 closed Friday at 6,816.89, up roughly 3.6% on the week, with the Nasdaq Composite finishing at 22,902.89 (+4.7%) and the Dow at 47,916.57 (+3.0%). Small caps joined the party too, with the Russell 2000 adding about 3% as rotation broadened out.

The real fireworks went off on Wednesday. When the ceasefire headline hit, the S&P 500 jumped +2.5%, its best single day in a year. WTI crude got annihilated, dropping 16% in a single session from around $112 to $94, the biggest one-day oil crash since April 2020. That one move erased weeks of war premium and sent chip stocks to fresh all-time highs as traders piled back into risk.

Friday cooled things off. A hotter-than-expected March CPI print (+3.3% year-over-year, juiced by energy) pushed rate cut expectations further out, and profit-taking kicked in. The S&P slipped 0.11% and snapped a 7-day win streak, while the Nasdaq still managed to close up 0.35% for an 8th straight up day. The VIX cooled to 19.49, closing below 20 for the first time since late February.

Still, the ceasefire is fragile. Israel struck Lebanon mid-week, Iran accused the U.S. of violating terms, and the Strait of Hormuz remained effectively closed Thursday morning. This weekend's talks will decide whether the rally has legs or the relief trade unwinds quickly.

‎TLDR Stock Market Weekly Update - April 11, 2026

📉 Market Trends

• Ceasefire Relief Rally: Most of the week's gains came in one session on Wednesday after the U.S.-Iran two-week ceasefire dropped. Risk-on flipped on like a light switch and didn't look back until Friday's CPI print.

• Semis Back in Charge: With oil collapsing and geopolitical risk fading, money flooded into chip stocks. The SOX punched out to fresh all-time highs, reclaiming tech leadership that had looked wobbly all month.

• Small Caps Keep Running: The Russell 2000 continues to participate in every rally, up about 3% on the week and still holding near recent highs. Rotation into small caps and equal-weight remains one of 2026's cleanest themes.

• Inflation Complicates the Story: Friday's 3.3% headline CPI reminded everyone that the Fed still has a problem. Rate cut odds for June collapsed from 55% to 35% after the print, putting a lid on the rally.

• Fragile Peace, Fragile Rally: Traders are rightly skeptical. Multiple ceasefire violations within 24 hours of the announcement kept short-term, short-attention-span money nervous. Whipsaws in both directions stay on the table.

📊 Technical Signals

• SPY Reclaims the High Ground: SPY is trading around $679 after a massive weekly push. Friday's intraday reversal off resistance says take Monday's open with a grain of salt, especially if weekend headlines disappoint.

• QQQ Regains Its Footing: After dipping toward $584 early in the week, QQQ ripped back on the ceasefire and semi rally. That $584 area is now key support to watch on any pullback.

• VIX Back Under 20: The VIX closed at 19.49, its lowest level since late February. That's a big drop from the 35+ spike we saw when oil first blew out, but it also means cheap hedges are back if you're worried about the weekend.

• Chip Stocks Leading Again: The SOX printed fresh all-time highs on Wednesday's ceasefire pop. As long as semis stay in control, tech pullbacks are buyable and not breakdowns.

💰 Economic Data, Rates & the Fed

• March CPI Runs Hot: Headline CPI jumped +0.9% month-over-month and +3.3% year-over-year, driven by a 10.9% spike in energy from the Iran war. Core CPI was the silver lining at +0.2% MoM and +2.6% YoY, both a tenth below forecast.

• June Cut Odds Collapse: After Friday's CPI, the probability of a June rate cut fell from about 55% to 35%. Traders are now pricing in maybe one cut for all of 2026, contingent on inflation cooperating.

• Yields Creep Higher: The 10-year Treasury closed the week at 4.31%, the 2-year at 3.81%, and the 30-year at 4.91%. The curve is slowly steepening as the long end prices in stickier inflation.

• Next FOMC Looms: The April 28–29 FOMC meeting is just around the corner. Don't expect a move, but Powell's press conference will set the tone for how the Fed reads the inflation spike versus softer labor data.

Sources: Charles Schwab

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📅 Coming up next week…

Economic Events:

• Tue (4/14): PPI (March), NFIB Small Business Optimism

• Wed (4/15): Retail Sales (March), Empire State Manufacturing, Business Inventories, NAHB Housing Market Index, Fed Beige Book

• Thu (4/16): Initial Jobless Claims, Continuing Claims, Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing, Housing Starts, Building Permits, Industrial Production

• Fri (4/17): Leading Economic Indicators, Fed speakers

Notable Earnings Reports:

• Mon (4/13): GS, FAST

• Tue (4/14): JPM, C, WFC, BLK, JNJ

• Wed (4/15): ASML, BAC, MS

• Thu (4/16): TSM, NFLX

• Fri (4/17): ALLY

Sources: Earnings Whispers, Charles Schwab

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