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Tariff Tensions Rise, BTC Hits $122K, Big Tech Earnings Ahead- Weekend Watchlist

Humbled Trader's day trading & swing trading ideas

Author

Humbled Trader
July 20, 2025

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Markets continued to grind higher, defying last week’s “Slightly Bearish” call. The S&P 500 rose 0.50% and touched another all-time intraday high (6,315). While there was some "sell the news" action from big banks and Netflix after earnings beats, tech leadership (especially Nvidia) kept the rally alive.

Key headlines:
- Trade tensions rising – Trump threatened a 100% secondary tariff on Russia and 15–20% tariffs on the EU.
- Nvidia resumed AI chip sales to China, pushing the stock (and semiconductors) to fresh highs.
- Mid-week volatility emerged after Trump considered firing Fed Chair Powell; he later backtracked, calming markets.

Bitcoin also surged to a record high of $122,838, fueled by positive U.S. crypto regulatory developments.

‎TLDR Stock Market Weekly Update - July 18, 2025

📉Market Trends

  • Earnings Season: Early reports (+5% revenue, +10% EPS) are strong, but high-flyers often see “sell the news” reactions.

  • Tariff Jitters: August 1 deadline and escalating threats weigh on sentiment.

  • Crypto Boom: BTC and ETH both hit 2025 highs amid regulatory tailwinds.

📊 Technical Levels & Market Signals

  • S&P 500 (SPX): Closed at 6,291; new highs but negative RSI divergence suggests slowing momentum.

  • Nasdaq 100 (NDX): Also set fresh highs but with waning momentum ahead of key mega-cap earnings.

  • Market Breadth: Contracted week-over-week (SPX breadth down to 60.9% from 64.6%), showing narrow leadership.

💰Economic Data, Rates & the Fed

  • CPI: +0.3% MoM headline (vs. +0.2% est.), +2.7% YoY in line.

  • PPI: Flat MoM (vs. +0.2% est.), +2.3% YoY (below +2.5% est.).

  • Retail Sales: Stronger at +0.6% MoM (vs. +0.1% est.).

  • Jobless Claims: Fell to 221K (lowest since April).

  • Fed Rate Cut Odds: Slightly lower; Sept cut chance down to 64% (from 70%).

🏛️ Cryptocurrency News

  • Bitcoin hits $122,838, Ethereum surges past $3,600 as U.S. crypto legislation advances:
    - GENIUS Act (stablecoins) headed to Trump’s desk.
    - CLARITY Act and Anti-CBDC Act passed House, now in Senate.

Sources: Charles Schwab

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📅 Coming up next week…

Economic Events:

  • Mon (7/21): Leading Indicators

  • Tue (7/22): No reports

  • Wed (7/23): Crude Oil Inventories, Existing Home Sales, MBA Mortgage Apps

  • Thu (7/24): Jobless Claims, New Home Sales, S&P Global PMIs, Philly Fed Index

  • Fri (7/25): Durable Goods Orders

Notable Earnings Reports:

  • Mon (7/21): CLF, DPZ, VZ

  • Tue (7/22): KO, RTX, SAP, TXN

  • Wed (7/23): GOOGL, TSLA, IBM, TMUS, BAC, JNJ, QS, T, HAS

  • Thu (7/24): AAL, TSM, GE, NFLX, INTC, HON

  • Fri (7/25): CNC

Sources: Earnings Whispers, Charles Schwab

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PGY $30.14

  • The stock experienced a significant rally after the company announced preliminary Q2 revenue guidance that exceeded expectations. The official earnings report is scheduled for August 7.

  • Leaning bullish on this name and looking to join the trend to the upside on pullbacks only.

  • The key level to watch is the $30s level. If that level holds, we could see a steady consolidation to continue the uptrend.

  • This is purely a technical day trade and swing trade idea.

  • Position Disclosure: No position

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QS $14.64

  • This stock has rallied over the last few weeks. There was a positive catalyst at the end of June; however, the stock is also approaching its Q2 earnings report next Wednesday.

  • I think the stock could be due for a “sell the news event” next week. I’ll be watching the $ 13.50 area for any signs of a red open and sell-off from profit-taking.

  • However, the momentum could easily continue to the upside leading into its Q2 earnings. Therefore, there is a high chance that the play would not be set up until after the report.

  • This is a purely technical day trading idea. I would not hold any position into earnings.

  • Position Disclosure: No position

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BULL $16.89

  • The stock made a move higher last few days after the company announced it will reintroduce crypto trading to its US platform.

  • Leaning cautiously bullish on this name. If the stock can hold the $15.1s KL, we could potentially see another trend-join continuation set up on the long side.

  • Position Disclosure: No Position

🗞️ Market movers you might’ve missed:

- Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co Ltd ($TSM) Taiwan Semiconductor Q2 EPS $2.47 Beats $2.37 Estimate, Sales $30.07B Beat $30.04B Estimate
- How we traded: Gap Up Reversal Long Strategy

- Coinbase Global Inc. ($COIN) Shares of Robinhood and Coinbase shares are trading higher following reports indicating President Trump is set to open the US retirement plans to crypto investments. Additionally, the US House passed the CLARITY Act on Thursday.
- How we traded: Backside Long Strategy

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