Tariffs Pause, Record Day Gains & Relief Bounces - Weekend Watchlist

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Markets bounced back this week after a rough stretch, with the S&P 500 climbing around 5%, thanks largely to a surprise 90-day pause on key tariffs that helped ease trade-related fears.

Early in the week, the index found technical support near the 50% Fibonacci retracement level, then rallied midweek on softer-than-expected inflation data (CPI and PPI).

However, volatility stayed elevated due to ongoing uncertainty around interest rates, rising Treasury yields, and a sharp drop in consumer sentiment. While the inflation data provided relief, sentiment remains fragile as investors weigh macro risks and await further clarity on trade and Fed policy.

‎TLDR Stock Market Weekly Update - April 11, 2025

📈 Market Trends

• Weekly Performance: Major indices rebounded, with the S&P 500 rising approximately 5% for the week.​

• Catalysts: The rally was fueled by a 90-day pause on certain tariffs announced midweek, providing temporary relief to markets.​

• Volatility: Despite gains, volatility remains elevated due to ongoing trade uncertainties and fluctuations in Treasury yields and the U.S. Dollar.​

📊 Technical Levels & Market Signals

• S&P 500: Found support at 4,835, corresponding to the 50% Fibonacci retracement from October 2022 lows to February 2025 highs.​

• Resistance: The index faces near-term resistance around the 5,500 level.​

• Indicators: The Relative Strength Index (RSI) reached oversold levels earlier in the week, suggesting potential for continued volatility.​

💰 Inflation & Consumer Confidence

• Inflation Data: Both the Consumer Price Index (CPI) and Producer Price Index (PPI) reports came in cooler than expected, indicating easing inflation pressures.​

• Consumer Sentiment: The University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index fell to 50.8, the lowest reading since June 2022, reflecting growing consumer concerns.​

🏛️ Federal Reserve & Interest Rates

• Fed's Stance: Boston Fed President Susan Collins stated that the Federal Reserve is prepared to act if market conditions become disorderly, though specific criteria remain undefined.​

• Interest Rates: Despite softer inflation data, Treasury yields rose, with the 10-year yield increasing over 50 basis points, signaling market apprehension

Sources: Charles Schwab

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📅 Coming up next week…

Economic Events:

• Tuesday, April 15: Empire State Manufacturing Index, Export Prices, Import Prices​

• Wednesday, April 16: Business Inventories, Capacity Utilization, EIA Crude Oil Inventories, Industrial Production, MBA Mortgage Applications Index, NAHB Housing Market Index, Net Long-Term TIC Flows, Retail Sales​

• Thursday, April 17: Building Permits, Continuing Claims, EIA Natural Gas Inventories, Housing Starts, Initial Claims, Philadelphia Fed Index​

Notable Earnings Reports:

• Mon, April 14: GS, PNFP

• Tue, April 15: JNJ, BAC, C, IBKR, UAL

• Wed, April 16: ASML, ABT, CSX, USB

• Thu, April 17: UNH, SCHW

• Fri, April 18: CMA

Sources: Earnings Whispers, Charles Schwab

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