Tariffs, Tensions & Tech Earnings — Higher Volatility Ahead

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Last week’s “Moderately Bearish” forecast didn’t materialize. While volatility remained elevated and price action was choppy, major indices are on track for modest weekly gains.

However, this was far from a quiet week. Markets had to digest a combination of policy risk, geopolitical tension, macro headwinds, and earnings crosscurrents.

The U.S. Supreme Court ruled 6–3 against President Trump’s global IEEPA tariffs — tariffs that reportedly generated $133.5B in 2025. The administration quickly pivoted, announcing plans to impose 10% global tariffs under Section 122 of the Trade Act of 1974.

Markets are still attempting to price in:

• The potential inflationary impact

• Supply chain implications

• Retaliation risk

This reintroduces trade policy uncertainty at a time when inflation expectations are already fragile.

‎TLDR Stock Market Weekly Update - Feb 22, 2026

📉 Market Trends

• The broader market continues to trade in a tight range, masking growing divergence beneath the surface.

• The SPX remains rangebound between 6,800 and 7,000, with the 100-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) continuing to act as near-term support. While the index has managed to hold this level, the repeated testing of support increases the probability of an eventual breakdown. A decisive move above 7,000 would likely shift momentum back to the upside, while a break below 6,800 would confirm short-term technical deterioration.

• Near-term view: Slightly bullish while 6,800 holds, but vulnerable to breakdown if tested again.

💰 Economic Data, Rates & the Fed

• This week’s economic data leaned hawkish overall and pushed rate cut expectations lower.

• Growth: Q4 GDP: 1.4% (vs. 2.5% expected)
  While the government shutdown likely shaved ~1.0% off the reading, growth still disappointed.

• Inflation: Headline PCE: +0.4% MoM (above expectations)

  Core PCE YoY: +3.0%, accelerating from the prior month
  This marks the largest monthly increase since February and reinforces sticky inflation concerns.

Sources: Charles Schwab

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📅 Coming up next week…

Economic Events:

• Mon (2/23): Factory Orders, Fed Gov. Christopher Waller speaks

• Tue (2/24): Consumer Confidence, Case-Shiller Home Price Index, Multiple Fed speakers (Goolsbee, Bostic, Cook), State of the Union – 9:00 p.m. ET

• Wed (2/25): Richmond Fed President Barkin speaks, EIA Crude Oil Inventories

• Thu (2/26): Initial & Continuing Jobless Claims, EIA Natural Gas Inventories

• Fri (2/27): Construction Spending, Producer Price Index (PPI)

Notable Earnings Reports:

• Mon (2/23): DPZ, HIMS

• Tue (2/24): HD, AS, PLNT, CAVA, WDAY, HPQ

• Wed (2/25): HUT, NVDA, CRM, SNOW

• Thu (2/26): QBTS, RTX, CRWV, DUOL

Sources: Earnings Whispers, Charles Schwab

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