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Tech Pullback or Trend Reversal? All Eyes on Nvidia- Weekend Watchlist

Defensive sectors take the lead as AI stocks wobble — plus what to expect ahead of NVDA’s make-or-break earnings.

Author

Humbled Trader
November 16, 2025

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Markets were choppy this week as tech and AI stocks came under pressure, triggered by cautious Fed commentary and rising skepticism about the pace of AI spending. The S&P 500 started strong—up nearly 2% mid-week—before reversing lower as investors reacted to Michael Burry’s post questioning data-center valuations, which re-ignited fears of an AI bubble. Tech weakness contrasted with strength in Healthcare, Staples, Materials, and Energy, signaling another rotation into defensives.


A brief U.S. government shutdown ended, but it delayed key economic reports, leaving traders flying partially blind ahead of next week’s mega catalyst: Nvidia earnings. With sentiment shaky and VIX elevated near 20, the market ended the week cautious but holding above key support levels.

‎TLDR Stock Market Weekly Update - November 14, 2025

📉 Market Trends

  • Rotation into Defensive Sectors: AI/tech sold off after valuation concerns resurfaced. Healthcare, Consumer Staples, Energy, and Materials led the market.

  • Government Shutdown Ends: The temporary shutdown delayed key data releases, reducing visibility for traders.

  • All Eyes on Nvidia: Nvidia’s Wednesday report is likely the defining event of the week ahead. Options are pricing a large swing — this could shape the next major trend in tech.

📊 Technical Levels & Market Signals

  • S&P 500 (SPX): Pulled back but held the 50-day MA, a critical support level. Early bounce suggests dip buyers remain active. Near-term read: Slightly Bullish, assuming this support holds.

  • Nasdaq Composite (COMP): Still heavily influenced by tech weakness. Trading just above support — a failed bounce could break the trend. Near-term read: Neutral → Cautious until Nvidia earnings.

  • Volatility (VIX): Hovering near 20, indicating traders expect larger price swings.

💰 Economic Data, Rates & the Fed

  • Limited data due to the shutdown, but Fed tone leaned cautious.

  • Concerns remain that rate cuts may be driven by economic weakness, not strength.

  • Treasury yields dipped mid-week before stabilizing.

Key delayed data points that typically move markets:

  • CPI & PPI

  • Nonfarm Payrolls

  • Retail Sales

Sources: Charles Schwab

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📅 Coming up next week…

Economic Events:

  • Tue (Nov 18): CPI

  • Wed (Nov 19): PPI, Retail Sales

  • Thu (Nov 20): Jobless Claims, Housing Starts

  • Fri (Nov 21): Existing Home Sales, Leading Index

Notable Earnings Reports:

  • Mon (Nov 17): XPEV

  • Tue (Nov 18): HD, BIDU, PDD

  • Wed (Nov 19): TGT, WIX, NVDA, PANW

  • Thu (Nov 20): WMT, BULL, INTU, GAP

Sources: Earnings Whispers, Charles Schwab

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GOOGL $276.41

  • The stock is up 3% hours after Berkshire Hathaway disclosed a massive $4.3B stake.

  • Leaning cautiously bullish on this name and looking to join the trend to the upside if it can hold the KL steadily and consolidate for another move higher.

  • The key level to watch is the $283.7s daily key level from last week.

  • After hours on Friday, the stock is trading near all-time highs, around $287s. Ideally, we would see a pullback first to KL before making the next leg up.

  • Position Disclosure: No position

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XPEV $25.01

  • The stock broke through a long-term downtrend on the daily

  • However, the stock had retraced significantly with the rest of the market the last few days.

  • The KL to watch is the previous $24.8 key breakout level on the daily. If that level holds up and consolidates, we could see a reclaim of the uptrend and potential continuation to the upside.

  • However, if the stock continues tanking below KL, it’s no longer valid as a long thesis.

  • Position Disclosure: No position

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DG $104.30

  • This is a defensive name that held up well during the recent market pull back.

  • The daily chart is looking prime for a downtrend breakout if it can break and hold over the KL of $104.85.

  • If it’s able to hold the KL and consolidate, we could see a slow and steady move higher to test $108 first and potentially higher to $112s.

  • Position Disclosure: No Position

🗞️ Market movers you might’ve missed:

- Warner Bros Discovery Inc ($WBD) Warner Bros. Discovery shares are trading higher after a Wall Street Journal report said Paramount, Comcast and Netflix are among potential bidders.
- How we traded: Backside Long Strategy

- Dollar General Corp ($DG) Dollar General Appoints Emily C. Taylor as COO
- How we traded: Backside Long Strategy

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