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The Market's Worst Week Since 2022- Weekend Watchlist

S&P down 3.4%, Nasdaq in correction, and rate hike odds just crossed 50%.

Author

Humbled Trader
March 29, 2026

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It was a brutal week on Wall Street, and the Iran war took center stage yet again. The S&P 500 closed at 6,368.85, down 3.4% for the week and marking its fifth consecutive weekly decline. The Nasdaq got hit even harder, dropping 3.2% to settle at 20,948.36, while the Dow fell 0.9% to 45,166.64. The Russell 2000 slid 1.75% to 2,449.70 and remains deep in correction territory. The Dow officially joined the correction club on Friday after an almost 800-point sell-off, and only the S&P 500 has managed to avoid the correction label so far.

The big story this week was oil. Brent crude topped $112 and WTI surged to $99.64 after Iran's "toll booth" blockade of the Strait of Hormuz disrupted an estimated 17.8 million barrels per day of oil and fuel flows. The diplomatic window appeared to open early in the week when the administration reported progress in talks, but Iran denied any active negotiations by Wednesday and the market gave back all its gains and then some. Trump extended a 10-day pause on strikes against Iran's energy infrastructure through April 6, but that did nothing to calm nerves.

The VIX spiked to 31.05 on Friday, up 13.2% on the day alone, which tells you everything about the fear level right now. The University of Michigan's final consumer sentiment reading for March plunged to 53.3, its lowest since late 2025, with year-ahead inflation expectations jumping from 3.4% to 3.8%. And to top it off, futures markets are now pricing in a 52% probability of a rate hike by year-end for the first time. It's a lot to digest heading into the weekend.

‎TLDR Stock Market Weekly Update - March 29, 2026

📉 Market Trends

  • War Premium Driving Everything: The Iran conflict has become the single biggest market driver. Brent crude above $112, Strait of Hormuz disruptions, and failed diplomatic talks sent risk assets lower all week while energy and defense stocks surged.

  • Massive Sector Rotation: Energy stocks are up 18.2% for March and defense names like RTX (+22.1%) and Lockheed Martin (+19.4%) are having their best month in years. Meanwhile, consumer discretionary is down 12% as rising gas prices crush spending expectations.

  • Correction Territory Expanding: The Dow and Nasdaq have now joined the Russell 2000 in official correction territory. The S&P 500's five-week losing streak is the longest since 2022.

📊 Technical Levels & Market Signals

  • SPY Breaking Down: SPY closed near the $636 level after losing key support this week. The S&P 500 is now down 5.4% for March alone and sitting at a seven-month low. Watch the $630 level next as the last line of defense before a deeper leg down.

  • QQQ in Correction: The Nasdaq is showing the most technical damage of all the major indices. QQQ's 50-day moving average ($600.70) has crossed below the 200-day ($608.10), confirming a bearish death cross setup. Support near $584 from the recent lows is the key level.

  • VIX Screaming Caution: The VIX closed at 31.05, well above the 20 "calm market" threshold. A reading above 30 tells us fear is elevated and we should expect larger-than-normal price swings. Not the time to be a hero.

💰 Economic Data, Rates & the Fed

  • Fed Held Steady at 3.5%-3.75%: The March FOMC meeting on the 18th kept rates unchanged with an 11-1 vote. The updated dot plot still projects one 25bps cut this year and another in 2027, but seven of 19 members now expect zero cuts in 2026, up from six in December.

  • Rate Hike Odds Crossing 50%: In a stunning shift, CME FedWatch now shows a 52% probability of a rate increase by year-end. Rising oil prices and inflation fears are completely reshaping the rate outlook. This was unthinkable just a month ago.

  • Consumer Sentiment Plunging: The final UMich reading for March came in at 53.3, down from 56.6 in February and the lowest since late 2025. Year-ahead inflation expectations jumped to 3.8% from 3.4%. Middle- and higher-income consumers showed the steepest declines.

  • Yields Marching Higher: The 10-year Treasury closed at 4.44%, its highest level since July 2025. The 2-year ended at 3.88%. Rising yields reflect the market pricing in more persistent inflation from the oil shock.

Sources: Charles Schwab

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📅 Coming up next week…

Economic Events:

  • Wed (4/1): ISM Manufacturing PMI (March), ADP Employment Report, S&P Global Manufacturing PMI

  • Thu (4/2): Initial Jobless Claims, Factory Orders (February)

  • Fri (4/3): Nonfarm Payrolls (March), Unemployment Rate. NOTE: Markets closed for Good Friday, jobs report still expected at 8:30am ET

Notable Earnings Reports:

  • Mon (3/30): SGMO, SPCE

  • Tue (3/31): NKE, PLAY, BYND, RH

  • Wed (4/1): TLRY, CAG

  • Thu (4/2): No notable reports

  • Fri (4/3): Markets closed for Good Friday

Sources: Earnings Whispers, Charles Schwab

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ARM $144.13

  • The stock soared 19% last week after the company announced a pivot from chip licensor to a direct silicon provider - projecting a $15B CPU revenue target in the next 5 years,

  • After the initial surge, the stock began to pull back amid market weakness.

  • Leaning cautiously bullish on this name. The key level to watch is the $144 daily level. If the stock can hold and bounce off the said KL next week, we could see a retest of $150 and a steady uptrend forming a downtrend reversal.

  • However, if KL is broken down with the continuous market selling, we have more downside to test $138s daily 200SMA

  • Position Disclosure: No position

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AXTI $60.63

  • The stock has continued its rally for weeks since its earnings run at the end of February.

  • Looking for the stock to technically pull back further to trend for a potential entry.

  • The KL to watch is the previous $50-$54 breakout area on the daily chart. If the stock pulls back and consolidates, we could see a reclaim of the uptrend and potential continuation to the upside.

  • However, if the stock continues to tank below KL, it’s no longer a valid long thesis.

  • Position Disclosure: No position

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AMPX $16.12

  • The stock is pulling back to a previous multi-year high level, after pulling back the last few trading sessions.

  • If the stock can reclaim the $16.8s support area next week, it could provide a short-term mean reversion setup towards the upside.

  • This is purely a technical day trade idea.

  • Position Disclosure: No Position

🗞️ Market movers you might’ve missed:

- $CVX US Oil Companies Poised For $60 Billion Windfall Amid Iran War, Says Energy Research Firm.
- How we traded: Backside Long Strategy

- $OXY Shares of oil and gas companies are trading higher amid the ongoing conflict in the Middle East as Israel claims it struck Iranian naval leadership overseeing Strait of Hormuz operations. Iran recently rejected an American ceasefire plan and launched missiles against Israel and other Gulf Arab countries, which prolongs the supply disruption.
- How we traded: Backside Long Strategy

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