🚀The Week the Market Bounced Back

What a week! After bottoming near 6,330 on Tuesday (the last trading day of Q1), the S&P 500 staged its first weekly gain since the war with Iran began, closing at 6,582.69, up 3.4% on the week. The Nasdaq led the charge, soaring 4.4% to 21,879.18, while the Dow added nearly 3% to finish at 46,504.67. The Russell 2000 also participated, closing at 2,528.26 with both the Russell and S&P 500 Equal Weight moving back above their 200-day SMAs.

The big catalyst? A WSJ report on Tuesday suggested President Trump was open to ending the war without reopening the Strait of Hormuz. That lit a fire under equities. But the optimism was short-lived. Wednesday evening, Trump delivered a national address warning the conflict could drag on for two to three more weeks, sending oil prices surging 11% on Thursday to $111.54 per barrel. The Dow dropped 1.29% on Thursday alone, the S&P slipped 1.22%, and the Nasdaq gave back 1.62%.

Friday brought a market holiday but no rest for traders. The March jobs report dropped before the open: 178,000 jobs added (nearly 3x the 60,000 forecast), unemployment dipped to 4.3%, and wage growth cooled to 3.5% YoY. Strong labor data, elevated oil at $111+, and an unresolved war in Iran. That is the backdrop heading into next week. The VIX closed at 24.54, down from 31 the prior week but still well above the comfort zone.

‎TLDR Stock Market Weekly Update - April 5, 2026

📉 Market Trends

• War Narrative Driving Everything: The Iran conflict remains the dominant force on Wall Street. Every headline about escalation or de-escalation is whipping oil prices and equities around on an intraday basis. Until there is a ceasefire or clear resolution, expect this to continue.

• Energy Sector Crushing It: XLE posted a 38.4% return in Q1 alone. ExxonMobil is up 43.5% YTD, Chevron up nearly 40%. Energy has completely decoupled from the broader market and become the portfolio safe haven alongside utilities.

• Breadth Still Weak: Only 49.2% of S&P 500 stocks sit above their 200-day moving average, a below-average reading. The index itself remains below its own 200-day SMA of 6,641. The rally this week was welcome, but broad participation is still lacking.

• Semis Showing Life: The Philadelphia Semiconductor Index moved back above its 100-day SMA, a constructive sign for the tech complex heading into a week that includes Applied Digital earnings.

• Jobs Surprise Complicates the Fed Picture: The 178K payrolls print blew past the 60K estimate, signaling a resilient labor market. Good for the economy, but it removes urgency for the Fed to cut rates anytime soon.

📊 Technical Levels & Market Signals

• SPY Below Its 200-Day SMA: The S&P 500 closed at 6,582 versus its 200-day SMA near 6,641. That level is the key resistance to reclaim. A decisive break above it would be constructive; rejection there would keep the bears in control.

• QQQ Testing Key Levels: The 50-day SMA ($600.70) sits below the 200-day SMA ($608.10), confirming a short-term bearish trend. Resistance near $634, support around $584 from the recent lows.

• VIX Cooling but Elevated: The VIX dropped from 31 on March 27 to 24.54 at Thursday's close. Still well above the low-teens levels we saw earlier this year. Options data is mixed: the VIX OIPCR ticked up to 0.35 (slightly bullish near-term) while the SPX OIPCR at 1.85 suggests traders are hedging and don't expect much upside.

• RSI at 45.7: Below the neutral 50 line but well off the oversold readings from late March. The market is in a recovery mode but not yet showing strong momentum.

💰 Economic Data, Rates & the Fed

• March Jobs Blew Past Estimates: 178,000 nonfarm payrolls added (vs. 60K expected), with healthcare leading the way at +76,000. Unemployment dipped to 4.3%, though the labor force shrank by 396,000. Average hourly earnings rose just 0.2% MoM and 3.5% YoY, a cooling signal.

• Yields Grinding Higher: The 10-year closed at 4.31%, the 2-year at 3.79%. The curve continues to steepen with a 52 basis point spread, as longer-dated yields price in persistent inflation risk from elevated energy costs.

• CPI Next Friday Is the Big One: The March CPI drops April 10 and could be a wake-up call. Analysts expect headline CPI to jump to 3.3% YoY (from 2.4% in February) as the oil price shock starts flowing through. This is the last major inflation read before the April 28-29 FOMC meeting.

Sources: Charles Schwab

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📅 Coming up next week…

Economic Events:

• Wed (4/8): FOMC Minutes (March meeting), Consumer Credit

• Thu (4/9): Q4 2025 GDP (third/final estimate), February PCE Prices, Initial Jobless Claims

• Fri (4/10): March CPI & Core CPI (8:30am ET)

Notable Earnings Reports:

• Mon (4/6): Markets reopen after Good Friday

• Tue (4/7): LEVI, AEHR

• Wed (4/8): DAL, STZ, APLD,

• Thu (4/9): BB, SMPL, NEOG, SLP

• Fri (4/10): LOT

Sources: Earnings Whispers, Charles Schwab

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