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📊Trade Tensions Return: Markets Slip After a Record-Setting Week- Weekend Watchlist

Humbled Trader's day trading & swing trading ideas

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Stocks hit fresh all-time highs early in the week before a sharp Friday sell-off erased gains, driven by escalating U.S.–China trade tensions. Trump’s announcement of a potential “massive increase in tariffs” on Chinese imports sparked profit-taking, particularly in tech and semiconductors, following weeks of relentless momentum. China retaliated by expanding export restrictions on rare-earth minerals and semiconductor materials, tightening the screws on the global supply chain.

Despite the pullback, bullish sentiment rose to 45.9% (AAII survey) and breadth remains solid. The ongoing U.S. government shutdown—now in its 10th day—has yet to dent investor optimism, though political gridlock adds to short-term uncertainty.

‎TLDR Stock Market Weekly Update - October 10, 2025

📉Market Trends

  • U.S.–China trade tensions reignite; tariff escalation threatens tech supply chains.

  • Semiconductor stocks (SOX) swung wildly — gapping higher early, then reversing 2% midweek.

  • Government shutdown continues with layoffs in Education and Health departments.

  • Investors remain optimistic; bullish sentiment above long-term averages.

📊 Technical Levels & Market Signals

  • S&P 500 (SPX):

    • Set intraday record before Friday’s 2% pullback.

    • Short-term RSI elevated but trend remains intermediate-term bullish.

    Nasdaq Composite (COMP):

    • Pulled back from new highs amid tech weakness; momentum cooling.

    • Still above key moving averages — trend intact unless selling deepens.

    Semiconductors (SOX):

    • RSI remains overbought after hitting 14-year highs; high volatility persists.

    • Traders watching for mean reversion after months of parabolic gains.

đź’° Economic Data, Rates & the Fed

  • ADP Employment: -32K — largest drop since 2023.

  • ISM Manufacturing: 49.1 (7th straight contraction).

  • Consumer Confidence: 94.2 (lowest since April).

  • Yields: Slightly lower across curve; 10-year near 4.1%.

  • Fed Outlook: Markets still pricing in two more 25bp cuts in 2025; expectations for October cut rise to 97%.

Sources: Charles Schwab

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đź“… Coming up next week…

Economic Events:

  • Tue (10/14): PPI, Small Business Optimism

  • Wed (10/15): CPI, Retail Sales, Fed Minutes

  • Thu (10/16): Jobless Claims, Industrial Production

  • Fri (10/17): Consumer Sentiment

Notable Earnings Reports:

  • Tue (10/14): BLK, JPM, C, WFC, JNJ, DPZ

  • Wed (10/15): ASML, DLTR, BAC, MS, UAL

  • Thu (10/16): TSM, IBKR, CSX

  • Fri (10/17): ALLY

Sources: Earnings Whispers, Charles Schwab

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CRML $14.98

  • This is one of the many rare-earth mineral-related stocks that spiked after China’s Commerce Ministry announced that foreign suppliers must obtain approval to export certain rare-earth mineral products.

  • So far, I’m staying neutral on this name. I think the stock appears to be extended, but it can still remain volatile if we get more updates on Trump's tariffs on China.

  • The KL is the $16 area on the daily. If the stock can reclaim that area early next week, we could potentially see more trend continuation to the upside.

  • However, if the stock breaks below KL and is unable to reclaim, I think it has a decent amount of downside towards $13-14, especially if the broader market sell-off continues.

  • Position Disclosure: No position

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OKLO $147.16

  • This name is one of the many quantum computing stocks that rallied again recently. However, it sold off much of its gains near the end of the session on Friday, following market volatility.

  • The KL I’m watching is the $144-$145 area on the daily. If market weakness continues next week, and this stock cannot hold said area, I’d be looking at the bear side on this trade. Below KL, the stock has a decent downside towards $130 and $125s.

  • However, if the stock reclaims over KL on the daily, the bear thesis is no longer valid.

  • Position Disclosure: No position

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AMD $214.9

  • AMD soared more than 25% on the OpenAI deal earlier this week. Despite some follow-through later in the week, the stock is retracing some of its gains on Friday following market weakness.

  • I’m staying neutral on this name. However, I would love to buy the dip for a swing set up if the daily KL holds. The key level to watch is the $211 area.

  • That being said, if market sell-off continues, and the stock cracks through KL, there is a huge gap to fill on the downside towards $180s.

  • Position Disclosure: No position

🗞️ Market movers you might’ve missed:

- Advanced Micro Devices Inc ($AMD) AMD shares are trading higher after the company announced a multi-year partnership with OpenAI to deploy 6 Gigawatts of AMD GPUs.
- How we traded: Gap Up Reversal Long

- CoreWeave Inc ($CRWV) CoreWeave Launches Serverless RL, A Fast And Easy Way To Train AI Agents Using Reinforcement Learning.
- How we traded: Backside Long Strategy

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