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Trump-Musk Drama, Trade Deal Optimism & Market Movers- Weekend Watchlist

Humbled Trader's day trading & swing trading ideas

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Humbled Trader
June 08, 2025

Markets defied expectations this week. Despite a forecast of early-week gains followed by a pullback, stocks consolidated initially and then rallied midweek. The S&P 500 paused after an eight-day win streak but surged on news of a U.S.–U.K. trade framework and an upcoming U.S.–China meeting. President Trump's social media post suggesting a potential reduction in tariffs on China added to the optimism. Investors are now focused on the anticipated meeting between U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent and Chinese officials, which could significantly influence market direction on Monday.

‎TLDR Stock Market Weekly Update - June 6, 2025

📉Market Trends

  • Trade Developments: Markets remain optimistic about potential trade deals between the U.S. and other countries, especially China.

  • Economic Indicators: Unit Labor Costs rose 5.7%, the largest jump in 2.5 years, while Initial Jobless Claims decreased to 228K.

  • GDP Forecast: The Atlanta Fed's GDPNow estimate for Q1 GDP was revised up to +2.3%.

📊 Technical Levels & Market Signals

  • S&P 500 (SPX): Up ~17% since April 7, approaching resistance at the 200-day SMA (~5,748).

  • Nasdaq 100 (NDX): Facing resistance at the 200-day SMA (~20,181); needs a close above to confirm bullish momentum.

  • Market Breadth: Improving, with 44.4% of S&P 500 stocks above their 200-day SMA, up from 37.8% last week.

💰 Inflation & Consumer Confidence

  • Labor Costs: Unit Labor Costs increased 5.7%, exceeding expectations and marking the largest rise in 2.5 years.

  • Jobless Claims: Initial claims fell to 228K, below the expected 235K, indicating a strong labor market.

🏛️ Federal Reserve & Interest Rates

  • Treasury Yields: Slight uptick this week; 2-year at 3.86%, 10-year at 4.359%, and 30-year at 4.828%.

  • Rate Cut Expectations: Bloomberg reports a decrease in expectations for a 25-basis-point cut at the June FOMC meeting to 17%, down from 37% last week.

Sources: Charles Schwab

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📅 Coming up next week…

Notable Earnings Reports:

  • Monday, June 9: CASY, LAKE, SKIL

  • Tuesday, June 10: GME, GTLB, PLAY, PETS, SFIX

  • Wednesday, June 11: CHWY, ORCL, VSCO

  • Thursday, June 12: LOVE, ADBE, RH

  • Friday, June 13: MNY

Sources: Earnings Whispers, Charles Schwab

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CRWV $140.16

  • This stock has rallied by more than 200% since its initial public offering (IPO) in March.

  • The company is a key customer and is backed by NVDA.

  • Leaning cautiously bullish on this name as long as it holds its uptrend momentum.

  • The KL to watch is the $123.8s area. If stock pulls back to KL and reclaims over 8EMA, I’d be looking to join the trend to the upside.

  • Position Disclosure: No position

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META $697.71

  • The stock made multi-month breakouts after the company is reported to fully automate ad creation by the end of 2026.

  • Leaning bullish on this name and looking to join the trend to the upside on pullbacks only.

  • The key level to watch is the $664s daily breakout level. If that level holds, we could see a steady consolidation to test previous all time highs.

  • This is purely a technical day trade and swing trade idea.

  • Position Disclosure: No position

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QBTS $18.62

  • The stock is quietly consolidating for another all-time high breakout test.

  • Last week the company announced major computing breakthroughs.

  • The KL to watch is the $18s consolidation area on the daily. Watch for the stock to hold the KL and form higher lows for a potential breakout.

  • Position Disclosure: No Position

🗞️ Market movers you might’ve missed:

- Tesla Inc ($TSLA) Trump vs. Musk: Trump Hints at Canceling Musk's Contracts
- How we traded: Backside Long Strategy

- Signet Jewelers Ltd ($SIG) Signet Jewelers shares are trading higher after the company reported better-than-expected Q1 financial results, issued Q2 sales guidance above estimates, and raised its FY26 guidance.
- How we traded: Gap Up Reversal Long Strategy

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